NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	103		Excitement	6.3 [572]		MVP	James Harden (OKC): +17.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	93		Comeback	1.8 [502]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -12.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeShawn Stevenson	0.16	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.00	4	109%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Shawn Marion	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.01	15	67%	0.18	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	6	81%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Alexis Ajinca	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	1	150%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	22	48%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.23,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.11,-0.19,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	0.03	0.01	17	38%	0.06	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	11	45%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.03	-0.01	9	75%	0.23	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	14	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.02	21	57%	0.04	5	-0.11	7	86%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	6	36%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	15	42%	-0.05	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.6	28.9	14.8	24.2	1.8	28.0	126.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +63.5%

OKC -10.2%

DAL +4.0%

OKC -6.7%

OKC -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	OKC	NBA	DAL	OKC	NBA
this game	16.1	14.5	15.5	109.6	98.9	105.7
season	15.7	15.0		108.5	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.7		105.4	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.9	16.1	16.6	18.0	16.1
OKC	14.9	15.2	13.4	14.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	59	59	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.08	18	-8	26	16.3	15.8	0.49	13.6	16.1	-2.57
Caron Butler	77	75	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.23	10	0	10	16.3	15.2	1.14	14.0	16.7	-2.70
Jason Kidd	72	72	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-2	14	15.5	18.0	-2.53	14.3	15.3	-0.97
Jason Terry	67	68	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	9	-8	15.7	17.2	-1.57	15.0	13.4	1.59
Shawn Marion	64	65	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	8	-6	16.3	15.7	0.65	13.7	16.3	-2.57
Dirk Nowitzki	22	23	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.08	7	3	4	15.9	16.2	-0.32	15.8	14.1	1.66
DeShawn Stevenson	39	39	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.12	8	2	6	16.3	16.0	0.26	14.5	14.6	-0.12
Alexis Ajinca	13	12	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	8	-6	16.2	16.1	0.06	17.6	14.1	3.50
Jose Juan Barea	22	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.04	-2	12	-14	18.0	15.5	2.53	15.3	14.3	0.97
Brendan Haywood	35	35	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.12	-8	18	-26	15.8	16.3	-0.49	16.1	13.6	2.57

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	33	32	0.29	-0.79	1.07	-0.09	13	-23	36	15.1	14.2	0.86	15.7	16.3	-0.64
Eric Maynor	29	31	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.19	10	-20	30	13.9	14.8	-0.92	17.0	15.7	1.38
James Harden	66	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-11	12	14.9	13.7	1.22	15.9	16.7	-0.81
Serge Ibaka	56	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-12	14	15.4	13.3	2.13	15.3	17.3	-1.99
Thabo Sefolosha	35	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.11	-13	3	-16	12.9	15.5	-2.53	17.8	15.2	2.60
Nenad Krstic	31	31	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.10	-13	3	-16	14.0	14.8	-0.79	16.5	15.9	0.66
Russell Westbrook	65	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.03	-17	7	-24	14.8	13.9	0.92	15.5	17.4	-1.85
Kevin Durant	77	78	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	3	-16	14.3	15.4	-1.07	15.6	18.4	-2.73
Jeff Green	78	78	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.14	-20	10	-30	14.5	14.7	-0.26	16.7	13.0	3.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.09,0.11,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 96, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.55,0.44,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.1%
WAS 97, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.29,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.08,0	93.0%
PHX 92, MIN 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.02,0,0,0	93.0%