NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	117		Excitement	7.4 [327]		MVP	Gui Santos (GSW): +13.8%
Golden State Warriors	128		Comeback	4.8 [128]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -15.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cameron Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.03	-0.05	7	43%	0.08	0	0.00	7	100%	0.05
Bruce Brown	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.02	10	60%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Joki?	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	-0.03	0.04	21	66%	0.23	5	-0.18	11	91%	0.04
Spencer Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	7	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.03	11	69%	0.11	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Julian Strawther	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	9	40%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.01	-0.09	0.06	17	57%	-0.00	5	-0.15	3	67%	-0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gui Santos	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.01	-0.00	7	94%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Moses Moody	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	16	70%	0.22	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.19	-0.02	0.05	11	100%	0.19	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
De'Anthony Melton	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.02	-0.03	18	50%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Gary Payton II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	11	68%	0.16	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.09	0.04	16	55%	0.17	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Will Richard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.01	9	55%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Spencer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Quinten Post	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.3	33.9	0.0	32.1	0.0	27.2	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +63.9%

DEN -20.5%

GSW +2.7%

GSW +4.4%

DEN -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	13.6	13.3	14.2	109.3	119.6	113.4
season	14.6	14.7		119.0	113.0
opponent	13.7	14.1		112.7	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	12.9	12.1	16.3	13.6
GSW	11.4	13.2	14.6	14.3	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway Jr.	81	80	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.11	-2	-9	7	13.8	12.8	0.94	13.3	13.3	-0.01
Jonas Valan?i?nas	25	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-6	1	16.2	12.7	3.50	14.2	13.1	1.08
Bruce Brown	81	80	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-11	11	14.3	11.2	3.08	14.2	10.8	3.36
Christian Braun	101	102	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-7	3	13.6	12.7	0.95	13.2	15.2	-1.96
Spencer Jones	50	49	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.06	-17	6	-23	14.7	12.5	2.18	12.7	13.9	-1.24
Jamal Murray	96	96	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	-5	-1	13.9	10.8	3.06	13.5	12.0	1.48
Cameron Johnson	107	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	13.6	0.0	13.56	13.3	0.0	13.33
Nikola Joki?	107	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	13.6	0.0	13.56	13.3	0.0	13.33
Julian Strawther	67	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.36	-6	-5	-1	14.5	11.9	2.57	13.3	13.4	-0.10

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gui Santos	101	102	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.23	13	-2	15	13.6	9.3	4.23	13.8	8.6	5.20
Al Horford	106	106	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.15	13	-2	15	13.4	1.0	12.44	13.7	3.0	10.66
Will Richard	101	101	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.24	8	3	5	13.6	8.8	4.76	13.6	13.0	0.59
Brandin Podziemski	106	106	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	2	7	13.4	1.0	12.44	13.7	3.0	10.66
Moses Moody	92	94	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.33	3	8	-5	13.8	10.1	3.71	13.8	11.6	2.21
De'Anthony Melton	93	94	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.28	2	9	-7	13.7	10.8	2.92	13.7	12.5	1.25
Quinten Post	80	83	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.12	-8	19	-27	13.8	11.9	1.87	13.5	13.6	-0.08
Gary Payton II	80	83	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.12	-8	19	-27	13.8	11.9	1.87	13.5	13.6	-0.08
Pat Spencer	73	73	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	-0.06	-10	21	-31	13.4	13.1	0.26	13.2	14.2	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.78,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 111, SAS 120	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.47,0.64,0.9,0.99,1,1,1,1	91.4%
IND 85, POR 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.79,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.69,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.94,0.98,0.99,1	91.3%
PHI 84, MEM 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.52,0.45,0.56,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.24,0.29,0.61,0.85,0.97,0.99,0.99,1	91.2%