NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	7.4 [355]		MVP	Derrick White (BOS): +41.3%
Boston Celtics	98		Comeback	23.4 [129]		LVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): -21.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Wiggins	0.38	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.18	0.20	0.00	16	76%	0.39	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Davion Mitchell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.03	0.00	-0.01	-0.03	11	54%	0.05	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.04	-0.03	13	50%	0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	0.02
Myron Gardner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,-0.01,-0.01	0.12	-0.13	0.00	15	73%	0.19	3	-0.20	3	100%	0.01
Pelle Larsson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.02	9	52%	0.04	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Simone Fontecchio	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	5	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dru Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovi?	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	5	0%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.44,0.41	0.41	0.04	0.34	-0.03	20	47%	0.41	0	0.00	5	100%	0.07
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.15	0.18	0.00	15	71%	0.37	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Nikola Vu?evi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	55%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Luka Garza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baylor Scheierman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Neemias Queta	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hugo Gonz�lez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	7	14%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.03,-0.13,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.15	-0.02	25	48%	0.03	7	-0.24	10	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	0.0	36.0	0.0	30.9	0.0	34.4	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +14.0%

BOS +18.3%

BOS +35.4%

MIA -15.7%

MIA -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	12.7	17.7	14.2	102.1	103.2	113.7
season	12.9	15.5		114.3	118.9
opponent	14.3	14.5		111.0	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	11.1	11.2	15.0	14.2	12.7
BOS	18.3	16.5	16.9	19.2	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pelle Larsson	32	33	0.40	-0.90	1.29	-0.19	20	-22	42	11.4	13.4	-2.04	17.7	17.7	0.07
Kel'el Ware	52	52	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-3	4	12.6	12.9	-0.28	17.5	17.9	-0.32
Myron Gardner	14	15	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.18	-12	10	-22	15.1	12.3	2.76	18.3	17.6	0.69
Bam Adebayo	78	80	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.45	8	-10	18	12.6	13.2	-0.63	18.2	14.9	3.35
Davion Mitchell	74	75	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.44	7	-9	16	12.6	13.2	-0.61	18.3	15.5	2.77
Simone Fontecchio	70	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.42	6	-8	14	12.9	12.2	0.69	18.4	15.5	2.91
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	94	94	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	0	-2	12.7	0.0	12.72	17.9	0.0	17.87
Andrew Wiggins	90	91	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-3	4	12.7	13.2	-0.55	17.8	14.5	3.32
Norman Powell	86	88	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.47	-1	-1	0	12.8	11.5	1.34	17.9	15.4	2.44
Dru Smith	93	94	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.43	-3	1	-4	12.8	1.0	11.85	17.7	16.0	1.70
Nikola Jovi?	26	26	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	0.10	-26	24	-50	15.4	11.7	3.68	17.3	17.8	-0.57

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baylor Scheierman	74	73	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-5	12	18.1	16.2	1.86	13.2	11.0	2.22
Sam Hauser	85	83	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.50	1	1	0	17.9	15.8	2.11	12.7	13.0	-0.31
Derrick White	95	94	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	0	2	17.7	0.0	17.68	12.7	0.0	12.72
Payton Pritchard	95	94	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	0	2	17.7	0.0	17.68	12.7	0.0	12.72
Nikola Vu?evi?	88	88	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	-1	4	18.2	11.1	7.06	12.8	11.2	1.66
Hugo Gonz�lez	75	74	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.00	3	-1	4	18.2	15.6	2.58	13.0	11.6	1.36
Jaylen Brown	78	77	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.54	-17	19	-36	18.2	15.2	3.05	12.3	14.6	-2.28
Neemias Queta	74	75	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.32	-16	18	-34	18.4	15.2	3.20	12.4	14.2	-1.80
Luka Garza	37	37	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.02	-10	12	-22	17.5	17.8	-0.24	11.6	13.5	-1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.12,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.71,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.33,0.82,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 104, MIA 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.36,0.41,0.47,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.91,1	89.3%
HOU 91, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.41,0.33,0.42,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.45,0.68,0.96,1	89.1%
CHI 113, IND 117	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.18,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.74,0.65,0.46,0.25,0.22,0.34,0.69,1	89.1%