NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	106		Excitement	6.0 [371]		MVP	Keldon Johnson (SAS): +21.0%
San Antonio Spurs	116		Comeback	1.0 [675]		LVP	Devin Vassell (SAS): -11.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylin Williams	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.00	0.02	15	63%	0.12	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Kenrich Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	18	62%	0.11	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Branden Carlson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Youngblood	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	42%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.06	0.01	14	67%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Brooks Barnhizer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	15	47%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	16	41%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.17	0.04	-0.01	17	69%	0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	58%	0.07	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	16	55%	0.06	2	-0.03	8	37%	-0.06
Jordan McLaughlin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Castle	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.05	-0.02	14	47%	0.07	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Carter Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.01	9	61%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	9	45%	-0.00	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Vassell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	10	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	0.0	29.4	0.0	30.0	0.0	28.9	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.2	32.7	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +31.5%

OKC -7.8%

SAS +30.1%

OKC -5.3%

SAS +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAS	NBA	OKC	SAS	NBA
this game	14.0	13.3	14.2	101.0	109.4	113.5
season	13.7	13.8		117.7	115.1
opponent	14.5	14.6		110.3	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.7	12.7	14.8	13.1	14.0
SAS	13.0	12.1	15.2	13.1	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenrich Williams	89	90	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-4	-2	14.0	13.9	0.16	13.1	14.4	-1.38
Chris Youngblood	90	90	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.16	-10	0	-10	14.1	13.5	0.56	13.5	12.2	1.27
Branden Carlson	103	103	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	0	-10	14.0	14.5	-0.50	13.2	14.0	-0.76
Aaron Wiggins	100	101	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.15	-11	1	-12	14.3	8.0	6.31	13.2	14.2	-0.98
Cason Wallace	103	104	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	2	-14	14.1	11.0	3.07	13.2	19.0	-5.85
Isaiah Joe	101	102	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.18	-11	1	-12	14.3	7.5	6.77	13.2	13.7	-0.50
Jaylin Williams	100	101	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.10	-14	4	-18	14.2	10.4	3.79	13.4	10.6	2.80
Brooks Barnhizer	101	102	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	4	-18	14.1	10.5	3.65	13.4	9.2	4.17

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Aaron Fox	106	105	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	13.3	0.0	13.26	14.0	0.0	14.01
Keldon Johnson	101	101	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	-1	12	13.0	17.8	-4.76	14.0	15.5	-1.55
Carter Bryant	93	93	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.16	9	1	8	13.2	13.4	-0.14	14.2	12.5	1.70
Victor Wembanyama	88	87	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	2	6	12.8	15.3	-2.49	14.1	13.4	0.68
Harrison Barnes	95	94	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.23	5	5	0	13.8	8.8	4.96	14.2	12.5	1.64
Luke Kornet	83	82	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.15	6	4	2	13.7	11.5	2.23	14.3	13.0	1.24
Julian Champagnie	67	68	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	2	6	12.6	14.4	-1.77	14.6	12.9	1.73
Stephon Castle	72	72	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	9	-8	13.2	13.4	-0.26	14.0	14.0	0.01
Devin Vassell	68	68	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	12	-14	13.7	12.5	1.23	14.8	12.6	2.14
Jordan McLaughlin	29	30	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	9	-8	13.1	13.3	-0.27	13.3	14.3	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.78,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.89,0.82,0.81,0.95,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 112, UTA 118	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.67,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.8,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.8,0.77,0.85,0.91,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.85,0.9,0.86,1,1,1,1	94.3%
ORL 74, BKN 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.81,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.98,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.98,1	94.3%
BOS 102, CLE 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	94.2%