NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	107		Excitement	7.9 [295]		MVP	Daniel Gafford (DAL): +20.0%
Houston Rockets	111		Comeback	1.2 [937]		LVP	Ryan Nembhard (DAL): -12.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gafford	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.08	-0.01	10	73%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Brandon Williams	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.00	0.00	7	87%	0.13	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Naji Marshall	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.02	-0.09	0.10	-0.00	11	29%	0.02	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.06
Moussa Cisse	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Caleb Martin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dwight Powell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Christie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	11	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	43%	0.01	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.03
Cooper Flagg	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,-0.08	0.11	-0.15	0.04	25	57%	-0.02	2	-0.07	10	70%	-0.03
Ryan Nembhard	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.05	-0.02	13	68%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tari Eason	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.01	15	57%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amen Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.01	15	54%	0.08	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	11	59%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.01	-0.03	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,0	0.00	-0.14	0.12	-0.02	20	32%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reed Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	17	38%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	0.1	28.7	15.5	28.2	1.7	32.1	134.1
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +13.9%

HOU +1.5%

HOU +16.9%

HOU +16.0%

HOU +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	HOU	NBA	DAL	HOU	NBA
this game	13.3	15.6	14.2	108.1	111.0	113.7
season	13.9	15.4		109.6	115.9
opponent	14.0	14.0		111.0	115.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.1	14.2	13.8	12.2	13.3
HOU	15.0	16.5	15.7	15.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Williams	30	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-2	0	14.3	12.9	1.38	15.3	15.7	-0.40
Ryan Nembhard	46	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-4	4	14.2	12.5	1.67	14.8	16.2	-1.48
Dwight Powell	30	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	3	-10	13.9	13.0	0.90	14.7	16.0	-1.24
Moussa Cisse	63	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-5	6	13.3	13.2	0.08	15.5	15.8	-0.36
Caleb Martin	72	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-4	4	13.7	12.1	1.59	15.5	15.7	-0.19
P.J. Washington	59	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.01	-11	7	-18	14.3	11.8	2.44	15.2	16.2	-1.03
Naji Marshall	94	94	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-2	0	13.4	10.8	2.64	15.6	15.5	0.11
Cooper Flagg	92	92	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.39	-2	-2	0	13.5	11.3	2.17	15.5	16.5	-0.98
Klay Thompson	74	77	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.29	-7	3	-10	13.5	12.7	0.78	15.1	17.3	-2.16
Daniel Gafford	81	83	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.35	-8	4	-12	13.6	12.2	1.39	15.5	16.1	-0.62
Max Christie	90	92	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.35	-10	6	-16	13.4	12.2	1.19	15.4	18.1	-2.74

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tari Eason	81	81	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.28	8	-4	12	15.4	16.3	-0.82	13.7	11.3	2.41
Jabari Smith Jr.	98	97	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	0	4	15.5	19.5	-3.98	13.3	12.5	0.82
Kevin Durant	98	97	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	0	4	15.5	19.5	-3.98	13.3	12.5	0.82
Amen Thompson	100	99	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	15.6	0.0	15.60	13.3	0.0	13.30
Alperen Sengun	90	91	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.24	0	4	-4	15.7	14.9	0.78	13.5	10.7	2.78
Josh Okogie	92	93	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.23	0	4	-4	15.8	13.7	2.01	13.5	10.2	3.34
Clint Capela	70	69	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	1	2	14.8	17.4	-2.62	13.9	11.9	1.97
Reed Sheppard	67	66	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	1	2	14.7	17.4	-2.68	13.8	12.3	1.45
Dorian Finney-Smith	54	55	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	10	-16	15.4	15.9	-0.50	13.9	12.5	1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 86, CLE 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.77,0.71,0.62,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.74,1	93.6%
DEN 97, NJN 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.8,0.77,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.85,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.91,0.99,0.95,0.84,0.85,1	93.2%
BOS 89, DAL 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.78,0.89,0.84,0.89,0.87,1	93.1%