NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	86		Excitement	7.2 [398]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +25.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	89		Comeback	1.5 [809]		LVP	Jamaal Magloire (MIL): -25.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Simmons	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	19	52%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Toni Kukoc	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	1	125%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
T.J. Ford	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.04	-0.10	0.14	-0.01	15	37%	0.12	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	7	37%	-0.02	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.14,-0.13,0.04,-0.19	-0.06	-0.12	0.02	17	45%	0.07	3	-0.27	6	83%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.25	-0.03	-0.22	-0.00	10	40%	-0.23	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.12

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.26	0.26	-0.04	0.26	-0.04	20	50%	0.35	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.07	-0.00	10	71%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	5	64%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	9	68%	0.12	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	13	56%	0.09	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	7	37%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Eric Snow	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.13	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	25.3	15.6	22.2	2.4	44.4	135.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +70.1%

CLE +8.6%

MIL -23.6%

CLE +5.5%

MIL -10.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CLE	NBA	MIL	CLE	NBA
this game	16.1	17.0	15.6	97.7	103.5	104.4
season	15.5	16.2		104.6	105.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.9	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.4	16.9	18.6	13.9	16.1
CLE	16.6	16.6	16.5	18.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	22	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-5	7	15.1	16.4	-1.26	16.7	17.2	-0.47
Toni Kukoc	14	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-2	1	16.0	16.1	-0.09	16.5	17.1	-0.64
Jamaal Magloire	70	69	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-6	9	16.3	15.3	1.01	17.1	16.8	0.34
Jiri Welsch	8	9	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	4	-11	21.1	15.6	5.55	18.3	16.9	1.45
T.J. Ford	78	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-5	7	16.6	12.4	4.15	17.4	14.1	3.32
Bobby Simmons	75	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.44	6	-9	15	15.2	21.0	-5.77	16.7	18.8	-2.09
Michael Redd	79	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.46	4	-7	11	15.3	22.9	-7.59	16.8	19.0	-2.22
Charlie Bell	25	27	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.25	-14	11	-25	17.7	15.4	2.24	16.4	17.3	-0.91
Andrew Bogut	69	65	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.39	-10	7	-17	16.3	15.3	1.04	17.5	15.6	1.94

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anderson Varejao	32	32	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.30	7	-4	11	17.6	16.7	0.94	16.5	15.8	0.71
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	65	69	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.18	8	-5	13	16.9	17.5	-0.58	16.8	13.6	3.19
Eric Snow	48	47	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	-5	13	15.9	18.5	-2.67	16.3	15.8	0.47
LeBron James	82	85	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.45	-3	6	-9	17.0	16.7	0.30	15.8	23.3	-7.51
Damon Jones	48	50	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	3	-3	18.0	15.8	2.14	15.0	17.6	-2.59
Donyell Marshall	49	49	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.35	-2	5	-7	17.6	16.2	1.39	15.4	16.9	-1.42
Sasha Pavlovic	50	51	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	0	3	16.2	18.1	-1.90	17.0	14.9	2.10
Drew Gooden	56	57	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.13	-6	9	-15	17.2	16.7	0.57	15.9	16.4	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.77,0.71,0.62,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 90, CHA 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%
DET 102, NYK 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.87,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,1	93.1%
BOS 100, MIN 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.76,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.83,0.87,0.79,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.87,0.88,0.8,0.93,0.97,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.0%