NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	111		Excitement	6.3 [325]		MVP	Kevin Durant (HOU): +28.0%
Detroit Pistons	104		Comeback	1.4 [259]		LVP	Cade Cunningham (DET): -24.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.23	0.07	0.02	19	73%	0.28	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.02	9	61%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	70%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Amen Thompson	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.01	11	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Reed Sheppard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	15	51%	0.11	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Alperen Sengun	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	11	59%	0.10	5	-0.12	10	70%	-0.00
Clint Capela	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jae'Sean Tate	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	4	40%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	50%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.15	0.11	-0.00	9	80%	0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaden Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Holland II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	76%	0.13	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00
Jalen Duren	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	60%	0.06	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Daniss Jenkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	10	50%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.00	8	67%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	8	43%	-0.04	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Javonte Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	6	27%	-0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Cade Cunningham	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	13	41%	-0.03	6	-0.21	3	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	0.0	28.9	0.0	29.1	0.0	50.9	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +31.2%

HOU +4.7%

HOU +7.8%

HOU +10.3%

DET -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DET	NBA	HOU	DET	NBA
this game	15.2	13.8	14.2	111.0	106.1	113.6
season	15.4	14.1		117.3	114.0
opponent	14.1	13.9		107.5	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.4	17.1	14.4	13.3	15.2
DET	13.4	12.9	15.0	13.9	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jabari Smith Jr.	100	98	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	15.2	0.0	15.21	13.8	0.0	13.83
Kevin Durant	100	98	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	15.2	0.0	15.21	13.8	0.0	13.83
Amen Thompson	100	98	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	15.2	0.0	15.21	13.8	0.0	13.83
Clint Capela	75	73	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.26	8	-1	9	15.5	14.2	1.29	14.2	12.8	1.43
Reed Sheppard	91	89	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.31	4	3	1	15.6	11.4	4.14	13.8	14.0	-0.19
Josh Okogie	92	91	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	4	-1	15.4	13.0	2.40	13.8	13.7	0.12
Jae'Sean Tate	87	86	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	6	-5	15.9	10.5	5.46	13.8	13.7	0.18
Alperen Sengun	83	82	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.27	-6	13	-19	16.0	11.4	4.65	13.9	13.3	0.61

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ausar Thompson	80	83	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.32	8	-15	23	14.0	12.9	1.08	16.0	11.1	4.93
Tobias Harris	78	80	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.28	4	-11	15	13.6	14.5	-0.91	15.9	12.4	3.51
Jalen Duren	80	80	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.27	2	-9	11	13.9	13.6	0.26	16.2	11.3	4.83
Duncan Robinson	82	82	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-9	11	13.8	13.9	-0.13	15.7	13.2	2.49
Daniss Jenkins	74	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.36	1	-8	9	14.0	13.4	0.54	14.8	16.4	-1.59
Ronald Holland II	77	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-2	-3	14.0	13.3	0.69	15.5	14.3	1.17
Cade Cunningham	88	91	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-6	5	13.9	13.4	0.48	15.7	10.4	5.24
Javonte Green	88	91	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.36	-1	-6	5	13.9	13.6	0.25	15.6	11.2	4.38
Jaden Ivey	70	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	4	-15	13.9	13.5	0.41	16.2	12.8	3.37
Isaiah Stewart	84	86	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	-2	-3	14.0	12.9	1.05	15.8	11.9	3.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.25,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.05,0.13,0.22,0.14,0.32,0.31,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 97, SAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.28,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.02,0,0	93.2%
MIA 112, NOP 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.26,0.15,0.04,0.07,0.05,0,0,0	92.9%
UTA 99, PHX 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.07,0,0,0	92.8%