NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	112		Excitement	6.0 [630]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +18.3%
New Orleans Pelicans	97		Comeback	1.6 [846]		LVP	CJ McCollum (NOP): -15.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.04	-0.01	21	63%	0.21	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.05	-0.04	9	78%	0.21	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	0.01	0.07	16	67%	0.14	3	-0.08	11	100%	0.04
Gabe Vincent	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	40%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Dewayne Dedmon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	69%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Omer Yurtseven	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Guy	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Tucker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	12	42%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Alvarado	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	0.01	12	71%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	8	80%	0.13	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Devonte' Graham	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	15	53%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	4	64%	0.02	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Gary Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	12	56%	0.06	5	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	21	34%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.4	26.5	15.2	26.4	2.6	28.9	128.3
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.1%

MIA +10.6%

MIA +1.4%

MIA +5.8%

NOP -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOP	NBA	MIA	NOP	NBA
this game	14.6	15.7	14.5	117.9	102.1	110.8
season	14.9	14.7		112.0	110.9
opponent	14.6	14.9		112.0	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	13.3	13.4	15.8	14.6
NOP	16.6	14.9	15.4	16.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	72	71	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.15	24	-9	33	14.4	15.2	-0.80	15.9	15.2	0.78
Kyle Lowry	73	75	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.05	20	-5	25	14.0	16.4	-2.40	15.8	15.5	0.25
Jimmy Butler	72	71	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.04	15	0	15	14.6	14.5	0.06	15.1	17.7	-2.57
Max Strus	53	54	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	11	-7	13.4	16.1	-2.69	16.9	14.2	2.77
Duncan Robinson	48	48	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	10	-5	14.9	14.2	0.70	15.0	16.5	-1.55
Gabe Vincent	60	58	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	6	3	15.0	13.9	1.13	16.2	15.0	1.27
P.J. Tucker	52	53	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.01	6	9	-3	15.6	13.3	2.36	15.5	16.0	-0.50
Omer Yurtseven	11	11	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.02	2	13	-11	15.3	14.5	0.80	15.5	15.8	-0.33
Kyle Guy	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	21.0	14.5	6.50	0.0	15.9	-15.91
Dewayne Dedmon	33	33	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.28	-10	25	-35	14.7	14.5	0.24	15.8	15.7	0.11

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	25	25	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.08	3	-18	21	15.9	15.7	0.23	14.7	14.5	0.21
Naji Marshall	12	13	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-15	15	17.0	15.6	1.43	14.1	14.6	-0.57
Jose Alvarado	39	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.20	5	-20	25	17.2	14.8	2.39	13.7	15.2	-1.44
Gary Clark	40	40	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	-0.08	-3	-12	9	16.0	15.6	0.44	14.6	14.5	0.10
Jonas Valanciunas	68	67	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	-9	3	15.1	17.3	-2.22	14.8	14.0	0.86
Herbert Jones	55	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	-6	-3	15.6	16.0	-0.44	15.2	13.6	1.62
Jaxson Hayes	33	33	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	-5	-5	17.0	15.1	1.87	12.7	15.6	-2.91
Brandon Ingram	66	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.03	-15	0	-15	15.1	17.2	-2.05	14.9	13.9	0.96
CJ McCollum	74	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.08	-21	6	-27	15.3	17.2	-1.85	14.7	14.0	0.79
Devonte' Graham	63	61	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.01	-19	4	-23	15.7	15.7	-0.00	14.7	14.3	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.26,0.15,0.04,0.07,0.05,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 108, HOU 94	0.5,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.05,0,0,0	94.1%
MEM 103, CLE 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.21,0.32,0.29,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0	94.0%
UTA 92, VAN 73	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%