NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	115		Excitement	6.6 [300]		MVP	Marcus Smart (LAL): +21.5%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	10.2 [130]		LVP	Peyton Watson (DEN): -13.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.14	0.03	9	65%	0.21	0	0.00	5	80%	0.04
Luka Don?i?	0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.18	0.03	0.04	21	70%	0.20	3	-0.03	12	92%	0.05
Drew Timme	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.00	6	69%	0.10	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jaxson Hayes	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.05	-0.00	5	64%	0.09	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Gabe Vincent	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	2	71%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Deandre Ayton	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarred Vanderbilt	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rui Hachimura	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	13	35%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake LaRavia	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	5	64%	0.03	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	15	53%	0.06	6	-0.16	6	33%	-0.07

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	0.00	4	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.00	0.03	9	89%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.00	0.05	21	61%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	9	69%	0.07	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.03
Jalen Pickett	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	39%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	12	32%	-0.04	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	0.00	-0.10	0.04	17	53%	0.02	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	29.6	15.6	23.8	1.8	39.9	140.3
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +19.6%

LAL +8.9%

LAL +29.7%

DEN -10.3%

LAL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.2	15.1	14.2	117.3	109.2	113.6
season	14.5	14.8		115.1	119.6
opponent	14.1	14.0		115.6	115.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.2	12.3	13.0	16.5	14.2
DEN	13.4	14.9	18.3	14.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Vincent	76	76	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.26	17	-9	26	14.6	12.8	1.83	15.9	12.5	3.35
Marcus Smart	70	71	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.21	15	-7	22	14.5	13.4	1.12	15.6	13.8	1.83
Jaxson Hayes	76	75	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.33	8	0	8	14.3	13.7	0.60	15.4	14.3	1.15
Jake LaRavia	73	72	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.12	15	-7	22	14.4	13.6	0.74	15.9	13.1	2.81
LeBron James	98	98	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	14.2	0.0	14.19	15.1	0.0	15.14
Rui Hachimura	98	98	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	14.2	0.0	14.19	15.1	0.0	15.14
Luka Don?i?	90	89	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	9	-10	14.0	16.7	-2.78	15.2	14.9	0.28
Drew Timme	38	37	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.10	12	-4	16	15.0	13.7	1.32	17.5	13.7	3.85
Jarred Vanderbilt	63	62	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	6	-4	15.2	12.4	2.79	15.7	14.2	1.46
Deandre Ayton	48	48	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.00	-6	14	-20	14.6	13.8	0.80	14.2	16.0	-1.83

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Pickett	72	73	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	0	-8	16.1	12.5	3.65	14.5	13.4	1.12
Spencer Jones	87	89	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-9	10	15.3	13.7	1.59	13.9	17.6	-3.70
Zeke Nnaji	55	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	4	-16	16.6	13.3	3.36	15.0	13.1	1.88
Jamal Murray	93	94	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-4	0	15.5	9.4	6.05	14.1	17.5	-3.45
Aaron Gordon	81	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	1	-10	15.4	13.9	1.45	13.9	15.8	-1.90
Tim Hardaway Jr.	98	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	0	-8	15.1	0.0	15.14	14.2	0.0	14.19
Peyton Watson	98	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	0	-8	15.1	0.0	15.14	14.2	0.0	14.19
Bruce Brown	82	83	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.20	-12	4	-16	15.3	14.3	0.99	14.9	10.4	4.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.6,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.73,0.86,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.81,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.75,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.34,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 89, CHA 84	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.35,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.1,0.04,0	91.7%
CHA 97, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.04,0.01,0.08,0	91.7%
ORL 116, HOU 110	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.71,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.09,0.04,0	91.4%