NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	116		Excitement	8.1 [312]		MVP	Kenyon Martin Jr. (HOU): +27.3%
Houston Rockets	110		Comeback	8.2 [247]		LVP	Usman Garuba (HOU): -10.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Franz Wagner	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.13	0.08	-0.05	15	71%	0.29	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Admiral Schofield	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.11	0.00	4	64%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Kevon Harris	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	13	54%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Moritz Wagner	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	8	57%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Mo Bamba	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	6	54%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Markelle Fultz	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.05,0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	10	41%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.03
Bol Bol	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	20	48%	0.02	5	-0.11	8	50%	-0.05

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.14	0.13	-0.01	11	75%	0.27	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Green	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.00	17	58%	0.15	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	8	59%	0.11	2	-0.09	6	50%	-0.03
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,-0.05,0.02,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.15	-0.11	0.02	19	76%	0.23	5	-0.21	3	67%	-0.02
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.09	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	11	45%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.04	-0.00	11	36%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Fernando	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daishen Nix	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Usman Garuba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	26.6	14.0	29.3	2.3	29.6	128.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -11.1%

ORL +20.4%

ORL +2.0%

ORL +38.3%

ORL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	HOU	NBA	ORL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.1	14.3	14.4	114.9	107.8	113.4
season	14.3	14.8		111.0	109.8
opponent	13.9	14.5		118.0	113.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.7	14.9	12.4	14.3	14.1
HOU	12.5	15.1	16.4	13.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Anthony	43	44	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.02	15	-9	24	16.0	12.7	3.29	15.7	13.2	2.53
Franz Wagner	69	69	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	-4	14	13.1	16.2	-3.09	14.4	14.0	0.44
Admiral Schofield	30	31	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	-3	12	16.5	13.1	3.35	16.0	13.5	2.54
Terrence Ross	37	39	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	-4	14	16.3	12.9	3.41	15.0	13.8	1.15
Mo Bamba	40	40	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	2	2	16.2	12.7	3.46	14.5	14.1	0.43
Moritz Wagner	61	62	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	4	-2	12.7	16.2	-3.46	14.1	14.5	-0.43
Kevon Harris	31	32	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	3	0	15.4	13.5	1.84	15.1	13.9	1.25
Paolo Banchero	71	71	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	9	-12	13.1	16.5	-3.35	13.5	16.0	-2.54
Bol Bol	58	58	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.31	-9	15	-24	12.7	16.0	-3.29	13.2	15.7	-2.53
Markelle Fultz	65	64	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.34	-11	17	-28	13.3	15.6	-2.25	13.2	16.0	-2.72

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruno Fernando	6	7	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.01	7	-13	20	13.8	14.3	-0.46	14.4	14.1	0.34
Jabari Smith Jr.	64	64	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.38	9	-15	24	13.3	15.8	-2.51	12.9	16.2	-3.37
Eric Gordon	70	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-8	10	13.7	15.4	-1.71	14.1	14.1	0.02
Jalen Green	78	77	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-6	6	14.1	14.7	-0.58	13.3	16.6	-3.25
Kevin Porter Jr.	78	77	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-6	6	14.1	14.7	-0.58	13.3	16.6	-3.25
Daishen Nix	24	24	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	0	-6	14.7	14.1	0.58	16.6	13.3	3.25
Alperen Sengun	69	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-6	6	14.2	14.5	-0.28	13.7	15.0	-1.26
Usman Garuba	25	24	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	7	-20	15.1	14.0	1.13	15.7	13.6	2.10
Tari Eason	40	38	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.05	-15	9	-24	15.4	13.5	1.95	15.8	13.1	2.78
Kenyon Martin Jr.	56	56	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.18	-14	8	-22	15.1	13.2	1.91	15.2	12.8	2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.71,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.09,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 109, WAS 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.72,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.29,0.27,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.09,0	91.8%
MIL 87, LAC 78	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.76,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.73,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.39,0.29,0.22,0,0	91.7%
NJN 95, CLE 87	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.4,0.47,0.31,0.16,0.01,0.09,0	91.3%