NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	7.6 [213]		MVP	Reed Sheppard (HOU): +29.6%
Houston Rockets	111		Comeback	15.1 [102]		LVP	Victor Wembanyama (SAS): -35.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keldon Johnson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	9	60%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luke Kornet	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	5	80%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.22	-0.14	0.02	17	73%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Dylan Harper	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	9	44%	0.08	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Carter Bryant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	15	47%	-0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Castle	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	19	33%	-0.08	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	-0.36	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.33,-0.36	-0.13	-0.23	-0.01	21	30%	-0.30	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reed Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.1,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.3	0.30	0.10	0.19	-0.01	17	58%	0.30	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.07	0.21	0.02	13	59%	0.27	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	71%	0.03	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.04
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alperen Sengun	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.01	13	65%	0.13	4	-0.12	5	100%	0.03
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Amen Thompson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	14	48%	0.02	3	-0.11	5	80%	-0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.04	-0.14	0.03	12	69%	-0.01	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.4	31.7	14.7	28.1	0.0	35.8	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +83.9%

SAS -2.9%

SAS -16.4%

SAS -15.4%

HOU +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	14.7	14.5	14.2	107.1	113.3	113.6
season	13.9	15.4		115.7	117.3
opponent	13.9	14.4		111.2	111.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.5	13.7	14.0	16.9	14.7
HOU	14.1	15.1	14.2	14.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carter Bryant	54	54	0.32	-0.82	1.15	0.03	10	-15	25	14.1	15.5	-1.42	14.7	14.2	0.54
Dylan Harper	92	92	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.40	-1	-4	3	15.0	11.0	4.02	14.9	7.3	7.59
Luke Kornet	91	91	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-4	3	15.1	10.2	4.88	14.7	10.9	3.88
Keldon Johnson	86	86	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-4	3	15.2	12.0	3.15	15.0	10.7	4.32
De'Aaron Fox	99	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	14.7	0.0	14.74	14.5	0.0	14.46
Julian Champagnie	86	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.41	-4	-1	-3	14.9	13.4	1.56	14.1	16.6	-2.49
Stephon Castle	86	84	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.32	-9	4	-13	15.1	12.2	2.97	14.3	15.2	-0.88
Harrison Barnes	66	67	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.36	-9	4	-13	15.6	13.0	2.56	14.9	13.5	1.43
Victor Wembanyama	85	84	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.25	-15	10	-25	14.9	13.9	1.03	14.7	13.3	1.37

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jabari Smith Jr.	84	86	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	-4	13	14.3	15.2	-0.88	15.1	12.2	2.97
Josh Okogie	76	76	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	-3	11	14.5	14.3	0.24	15.5	12.3	3.17
Tari Eason	87	88	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.37	5	0	5	14.9	11.2	3.69	15.1	11.5	3.59
Reed Sheppard	98	98	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.34	5	0	5	14.5	0.0	14.46	14.8	7.0	7.82
Amen Thompson	98	98	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.34	5	0	5	14.5	0.0	14.46	14.8	7.0	7.82
Alperen Sengun	91	91	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.42	1	4	-3	14.7	10.9	3.88	15.1	10.2	4.88
Kevin Durant	93	92	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.41	1	4	-3	14.4	15.0	-0.57	15.0	11.1	3.87
Dorian Finney-Smith	92	92	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	3	-1	14.9	7.3	7.59	15.0	11.0	4.02
Clint Capela	62	64	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	8	-11	14.5	14.4	0.07	14.7	14.7	0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 89, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.24,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	92.9%
POR 85, MEM 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.25,0.42,0.26,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.15,0.39,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.84,1	92.8%
MEM 122, OKC 126	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.22,0.26,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.66,0.58,1	92.0%