NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	105		Excitement	7.9 [192]		MVP	Kevin Durant (HOU): +43.8%
Houston Rockets	110		Comeback	3.1 [309]		LVP	Rudy Gobert (MIN): -11.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Naz Reid	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.19	0.06	0.01	11	93%	0.31	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
Julius Randle	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.17	0.10	0.08	0.01	25	64%	0.35	5	-0.18	11	82%	0.05
Jaylen Clark	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joan Beringer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	4	20%	-0.05	1	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Jaden McDaniels	-0.07	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	14	45%	-0.05	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.06
Mike Conley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	8	33%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Donte DiVincenzo	-0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	10	40%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	7	42%	-0.05	2	-0.07	10	20%	-0.19

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.44	0.44	0.21	0.23	0.01	18	78%	0.60	5	-0.17	14	79%	0.04
Reed Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	-0.01	9	78%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.05	-0.03	12	31%	0.01	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.01
Alperen Sengun	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.07,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.05	0.02	22	47%	0.14	4	-0.14	9	33%	-0.11
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amen Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.02	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
JD Davison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	10%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.3	27.3	0.0	45.9	0.0	42.1	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +25.9%

HOU +22.8%

MIN -13.7%

HOU +13.3%

HOU +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	HOU	NBA	MIN	HOU	NBA
this game	13.2	15.4	14.2	104.0	110.0	113.6
season	14.0	15.4		116.2	117.3
opponent	13.9	14.1		111.2	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.5	14.6	13.6	10.8	13.2
HOU	15.3	15.4	15.9	15.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joan Beringer	38	37	0.31	-0.81	1.11	0.01	10	-15	25	13.0	13.4	-0.37	16.0	15.0	1.00
Mike Conley	68	69	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-6	7	14.0	11.7	2.27	15.9	14.3	1.61
Donte DiVincenzo	90	88	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.37	3	-8	11	12.8	16.4	-3.52	15.6	14.0	1.59
Rudy Gobert	88	87	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-7	9	13.2	13.4	-0.18	15.8	13.0	2.76
Jaylen Clark	98	99	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-3	1	13.4	6.3	7.11	15.5	10.0	5.45
Jaden McDaniels	87	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-5	5	12.8	16.1	-3.30	15.5	14.5	0.99
Bones Hyland	83	83	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-1	-3	13.4	12.6	0.75	15.7	14.0	1.69
Julius Randle	101	100	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	13.2	0.0	13.23	15.4	0.0	15.40
Naz Reid	101	100	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	13.2	0.0	13.23	15.4	0.0	15.40

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amen Thompson	100	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	15.4	0.0	15.40	13.2	0.0	13.23
Kevin Durant	99	100	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	0	5	15.5	10.0	5.45	13.2	17.0	-3.81
Jae'Sean Tate	65	68	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	-2	9	15.6	15.0	0.62	12.9	13.9	-1.06
Jabari Smith Jr.	92	94	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.42	1	4	-3	15.6	13.1	2.47	12.8	19.0	-6.20
Alperen Sengun	87	89	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.31	0	5	-5	16.0	11.5	4.44	13.0	14.7	-1.63
Reed Sheppard	95	96	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.21	3	2	1	15.6	11.0	4.63	13.5	8.2	5.29
Josh Okogie	86	87	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.28	-3	8	-11	16.0	11.4	4.62	13.1	13.9	-0.73
Dorian Finney-Smith	71	73	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.24	-2	7	-9	15.9	14.2	1.68	13.4	12.7	0.71
JD Davison	19	18	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.08	-9	14	-23	16.1	15.2	0.81	12.6	13.4	-0.75
Clint Capela	66	66	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.02	-6	11	-17	15.7	14.9	0.78	14.4	11.0	3.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.83,0.77,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.98,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 94, DAL 97	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.99,1,1	93.0%
NYK 92, CHA 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.72,0.68,0.79,0.84,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.96,1	92.7%
CLE 95, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.33,0.35,0.26,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.66,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,1	92.6%