NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	104		Excitement	7.1 [252]		MVP	Tim Hardaway Jr. (DEN): +36.6%
Denver Nuggets	108		Comeback	1.6 [178]		LVP	Ryan Rollins (MIL): -25.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Portis	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.04	-0.00	9	78%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.12	0.13	0.01	0.02	17	65%	0.20	2	-0.08	14	71%	-0.03
Gary Harris	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	2	150%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.14	-0.01	0.03	8	80%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
AJ Green	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09	0.11	-0.00	0.03	8	87%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	13	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Gary Trent Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Porter Jr.	-0.21	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21	-0.17	-0.04	0.00	17	29%	-0.12	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Ryan Rollins	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.15,-0.25	-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	9	11%	-0.22	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.22	0.14	-0.01	12	86%	0.38	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.01	9	61%	0.14	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.00	0.02	16	56%	0.07	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
Jalen Pickett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	13	48%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	19	47%	0.10	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	1	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Spencer Jones	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	9	28%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.5	29.3	14.6	27.5	1.3	39.2	135.7
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +13.2%

DEN +20.7%

DEN +13.5%

DEN +1.0%

DEN +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.1	16.3	14.2	109.5	114.9	113.6
season	14.5	14.8		111.4	119.6
opponent	14.1	14.3		115.6	115.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.6	13.8	14.0	13.3	14.1
DEN	18.4	14.4	14.8	18.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	74	73	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.38	16	-20	36	13.6	16.2	-2.62	17.1	13.4	3.68
Bobby Portis	47	48	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-6	8	14.7	13.6	1.14	17.1	15.5	1.58
Ryan Rollins	79	79	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.32	8	-12	20	13.9	15.5	-1.63	17.0	12.5	4.55
AJ Green	80	80	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.40	8	-12	20	14.1	14.4	-0.30	16.9	12.6	4.37
Gary Harris	78	77	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-5	6	14.6	12.0	2.62	16.6	14.9	1.72
Myles Turner	74	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-5	6	13.9	15.0	-1.09	16.3	16.3	-0.04
Gary Trent Jr.	54	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.03	-8	4	-12	14.9	13.1	1.80	15.8	17.0	-1.24
Kyle Kuzma	78	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.38	2	-6	8	14.5	12.6	1.83	16.6	14.7	1.85
Kevin Porter Jr.	95	94	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.1	0.0	14.15	16.3	0.0	16.29

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peyton Watson	94	95	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	16.3	0.0	16.29	14.1	0.0	14.15
Tim Hardaway Jr.	94	94	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	0	4	16.3	0.0	16.29	14.3	4.0	10.26
Zeke Nnaji	94	94	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	0	4	16.3	0.0	16.29	14.3	4.0	10.26
Bruce Brown	83	83	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.43	-5	9	-14	16.5	14.5	2.08	14.3	13.2	1.03
Jalen Pickett	86	86	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.42	-5	9	-14	16.3	16.5	-0.23	14.0	15.6	-1.56
Julian Strawther	29	29	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	1	2	16.9	16.0	0.93	15.0	13.8	1.23
Aaron Gordon	76	76	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.36	-13	17	-30	17.0	13.3	3.72	13.7	15.7	-1.99
Spencer Jones	69	68	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.34	-17	21	-38	17.4	13.3	4.04	14.0	14.6	-0.67
Hunter Tyson	26	25	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.12	-12	16	-28	16.7	16.1	0.61	14.5	14.0	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.9,0.96,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.89,0.94,0.87,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 89, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.76,0.66,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.9,1,1,1	93.2%
MIL 92, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.72,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.91,1	93.0%
LAL 102, SAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.78,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.68,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.92,1	92.7%