NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	110		Excitement	5.6 [376]		MVP	Jalen Johnson (ATL): +13.5%
Denver Nuggets	87		Comeback	1.9 [352]		LVP	Christian Braun (DEN): -14.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Johnson	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.20	0.01	0.08	18	78%	0.18	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.00
Dyson Daniels	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	14	57%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Asa Newell	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.00	5	90%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keaton Wallace	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.04	0.02	6	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Onyeka Okongwu	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.06	0.02	14	54%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.05	21	51%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Mouhamed Gueye	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
V�t Krej?�	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	8	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.03	-0.05	9	56%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.03	0.04	5	92%	0.12	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	-0.01	-0.03	11	54%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
DaRon Holmes II	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	3	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	19	56%	0.12	5	-0.11	7	71%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	-0.00
Jalen Pickett	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	58%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.05	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	1.5	25.9	0.0	29.7	0.0	26.2	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +36.0%

DEN -10.3%

DEN -4.0%

ATL +27.5%

ATL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	13.8	15.8	14.2	112.2	90.6	113.6
season	13.2	14.8		112.8	119.6
opponent	14.1	14.4		115.6	113.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.5	12.9	14.2	14.7	13.8
DEN	16.1	14.8	15.2	17.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Asa Newell	34	34	0.74	-0.24	0.99	-0.20	32	-9	41	13.4	14.0	-0.59	17.6	14.9	2.72
Dyson Daniels	82	80	0.73	-0.23	0.96	-0.09	28	-5	33	13.5	15.2	-1.74	16.2	14.2	1.98
Luke Kennard	83	82	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.22	25	-2	27	13.7	14.5	-0.79	16.5	12.1	4.40
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	95	94	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.20	24	-1	25	13.7	18.3	-4.68	15.8	18.0	-2.21
Onyeka Okongwu	94	92	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.12	21	2	19	13.6	17.7	-4.12	15.7	19.0	-3.30
Jalen Johnson	90	88	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.16	20	3	17	13.6	15.9	-2.26	16.0	14.1	1.86
Mouhamed Gueye	79	78	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.16	18	5	13	13.6	14.5	-0.84	16.4	13.4	3.01
V�t Krej?�	89	86	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.16	17	6	11	13.6	15.6	-1.94	16.2	12.5	3.72
Keaton Wallace	80	78	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.26	20	3	17	13.8	13.9	-0.18	16.3	13.7	2.67

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	59	60	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-19	15	16.8	14.4	2.41	13.2	14.7	-1.41
Hunter Tyson	75	79	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.22	-18	-5	-13	16.4	13.8	2.59	13.3	15.8	-2.54
Aaron Gordon	82	85	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	-10	-3	15.8	16.2	-0.45	13.3	16.8	-3.52
Bruce Brown	79	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.14	-21	-2	-19	16.2	14.2	2.01	13.5	15.0	-1.47
Tim Hardaway Jr.	83	85	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.02	-16	-7	-9	15.6	17.5	-1.88	13.3	16.8	-3.52
Peyton Watson	87	89	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.06	-19	-4	-15	16.0	14.3	1.66	13.6	16.1	-2.55
DaRon Holmes II	40	40	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.05	-21	-2	-19	17.2	14.8	2.39	12.9	14.4	-1.56
Zeke Nnaji	64	65	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	0.17	-28	5	-33	16.3	14.9	1.44	13.6	14.2	-0.58
Jalen Pickett	79	81	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	0.07	-28	5	-33	16.2	14.1	2.16	13.5	15.1	-1.60
Julian Strawther	55	56	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	0.22	-34	11	-45	17.4	13.8	3.63	13.4	14.3	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.35,0.19,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.4,0.54,0.26,0.25,0.11,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 119, BKN 104	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.2,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.21,0.11,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
MEM 119, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.24,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.8%
DET 101, TOR 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.23,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	93.8%