NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	111		Excitement	7.3 [340]		MVP	Trey Murphy III (NOP): +42.9%
New Orleans Pelicans	103		Comeback	5.6 [314]		LVP	Jeremiah Fears (NOP): -18.5%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.28	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.1,0.18,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.18	0.13	0.03	19	67%	0.30	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Dalton Knecht	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	5	60%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deandre Ayton	0.08	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	16	56%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jarred Vanderbilt	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	70%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Luka Don?i?	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	22	57%	0.18	5	-0.17	9	56%	-0.03
Jake LaRavia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Marcus Smart	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	10	65%	0.09	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	40%	0.01	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Nick Smith Jr.	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.43	0.31	0.16	0.04	26	69%	0.43	0	0.00	9	89%	0.02
Yves Missi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Karlo Matkovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Micah Peavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jose Alvarado	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	6	42%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zion Williamson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	13	48%	0.08	3	-0.11	5	20%	-0.08
Derik Queen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	9	17%	-0.15	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Poole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Fears	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.08	-0.08	0.03	13	35%	-0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	0.2	29.8	0.0	26.6	0.0	39.5	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +47.2%

NOP -1.7%

LAL +1.2%

LAL +3.4%

NOP -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	NOP	NBA	LAL	NOP	NBA
this game	14.8	13.8	14.2	111.0	102.0	113.4
season	14.5	14.1		115.9	112.3
opponent	14.1	14.1		115.9	114.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.7	14.3	13.5	16.8	14.8
NOP	13.9	14.5	14.2	12.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deandre Ayton	73	75	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.25	14	-6	20	15.4	13.1	2.31	13.8	13.9	-0.14
Jake LaRavia	90	90	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-2	12	15.0	12.6	2.44	14.0	12.5	1.53
Luka Don?i?	93	95	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.22	10	-2	12	14.9	13.4	1.47	13.9	12.0	1.94
Marcus Smart	88	90	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-2	12	14.9	13.9	1.00	13.9	12.8	1.13
LeBron James	100	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	14.8	0.0	14.80	13.8	0.0	13.82
Jaxson Hayes	90	90	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.21	6	2	4	14.6	16.2	-1.56	14.3	10.1	4.19
Jarred Vanderbilt	85	85	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	0	8	14.6	15.8	-1.18	14.5	10.2	4.24
Dalton Knecht	60	59	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	-2	12	14.9	14.6	0.25	13.9	13.6	0.31
Nick Smith Jr.	55	55	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.15	1	7	-6	14.0	15.8	-1.86	13.9	13.7	0.23

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karlo Matkovi?	51	51	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.14	0	-8	8	14.1	13.6	0.48	14.1	15.5	-1.43
Jordan Poole	71	70	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-2	-4	14.6	12.1	2.50	15.1	14.1	1.05
Yves Missi	53	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-2	-4	14.6	13.0	1.57	15.1	14.4	0.72
Zion Williamson	65	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-4	0	14.7	12.3	2.36	15.3	13.8	1.51
Herbert Jones	89	88	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-2	-4	14.0	12.3	1.69	14.9	14.4	0.44
Trey Murphy III	101	100	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	0	-8	13.8	0.0	13.82	14.8	0.0	14.80
Jose Alvarado	95	95	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.29	-8	0	-8	14.1	8.7	5.48	15.1	9.2	5.89
Derik Queen	73	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.18	-13	5	-18	14.1	13.2	0.84	15.0	14.3	0.71
Jeremiah Fears	55	56	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.17	-15	7	-22	15.1	12.3	2.87	14.8	14.8	0.01
Micah Peavy	75	75	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.18	-16	8	-24	14.3	12.6	1.68	15.2	13.5	1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.66,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 93, LAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.54,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.08,0.07,0.02,0	93.7%
LAL 113, NYK 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.78,0.74,0.57,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.02,0,0	92.6%
MIA 103, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.84,0.8,0.67,0.82,0.87,0.78,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.01,0,0,0	92.1%