NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	6.1 [571]		MVP	Shane Battier (MIA): +25.7%
Atlanta Hawks	90		Comeback	7.1 [287]		LVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): -27.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.17	0.10	0.02	8	94%	0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.07	0.12	-0.02	12	58%	0.23	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
LeBron James	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.07	0.01	15	63%	0.21	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.03
Mario Chalmers	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	9	78%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.05	0.00	18	45%	0.06	4	-0.09	8	50%	-0.03
Chris Bosh	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.02	0.02	10	27%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.03	-0.01	15	79%	0.25	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	5	90%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.00	6	100%	0.19	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	46%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
John Jenkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.05	-0.03	13	38%	0.01	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.15	-0.11	0.02	12	36%	-0.13	6	-0.15	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.0	29.6	15.0	25.3	2.5	27.5	128.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +19.7%

MIA +12.2%

ATL -7.0%

MIA +22.7%

MIA +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.6	15.4	110.8	93.8	104.1
season	15.7	15.1		110.2	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.9		102.8	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	17.7	17.5	14.5	15.9
ATL	13.5	14.4	14.6	16.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	14	13	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.25	15	-2	17	14.9	16.1	-1.19	18.3	14.0	4.26
Shane Battier	61	63	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.16	18	-5	23	16.1	15.5	0.57	14.4	15.0	-0.53
Norris Cole	38	37	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.22	15	-2	17	15.5	16.1	-0.63	16.4	13.5	2.90
Ray Allen	56	56	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	4	5	16.5	14.9	1.63	14.0	15.5	-1.54
LeBron James	79	83	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.04	16	-3	19	15.4	18.4	-2.93	14.1	18.0	-3.90
Dwyane Wade	66	68	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	8	-3	15.8	16.1	-0.34	15.1	13.5	1.64
Chris Andersen	19	19	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	16	-19	16.9	15.6	1.35	12.6	15.1	-2.55
Chris Bosh	55	57	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.11	1	12	-11	15.6	16.3	-0.75	14.9	14.2	0.66
Udonis Haslem	37	40	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.07	-5	18	-23	15.8	15.9	-0.06	14.3	14.9	-0.56
Mario Chalmers	40	44	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.13	-6	19	-25	16.3	15.5	0.84	14.2	15.0	-0.78

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Jenkins	15	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-12	11	15.9	14.4	1.55	16.5	15.8	0.74
Zaza Pachulia	51	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-11	9	15.0	14.2	0.76	15.6	16.2	-0.55
Anthony Tolliver	18	17	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-10	7	11.9	15.2	-3.30	15.1	16.1	-0.99
Devin Harris	38	36	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.17	1	-14	15	13.3	15.5	-2.17	17.6	14.8	2.84
DeShawn Stevenson	54	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	-8	3	15.1	14.0	1.11	15.1	16.9	-1.81
Josh Smith	75	73	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	-5	-3	15.0	13.2	1.78	15.6	16.7	-1.12
Ivan Johnson	29	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	-5	-3	13.9	14.9	-0.99	17.1	15.4	1.72
Kyle Korver	52	51	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.01	-13	0	-13	13.4	16.1	-2.75	16.4	15.2	1.24
Al Horford	85	82	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-3	-7	14.7	13.8	0.91	15.9	15.9	-0.04
Jeff Teague	63	63	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.10	-16	3	-19	15.9	12.2	3.77	15.1	17.5	-2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.84,0.8,0.67,0.82,0.87,0.78,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 119, PHX 111	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.33,0.38,0.23,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.01,0	91.6%
GSW 112, HOU 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.53,0.37,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.04,0,0,0,0	91.2%
BOS 102, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.77,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.22,0.15,0.04,0.03,0,0	90.8%