NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	112		Excitement	6.9 [403]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +13.0%
Houston Rockets	95		Comeback	6.7 [119]		LVP	Bonzi Wells (HOU): -14.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	11	77%	0.20	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Kelenna Azubuike	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	7	72%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	70%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.12	0.08	-0.04	23	46%	0.16	7	-0.16	4	100%	0.02
Al Harrington	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	16	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.00	0.00	0.09	14	58%	0.01	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.02
Matt Barnes	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	5	-0.14	4	100%	0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	17	54%	0.08	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.03
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	4	80%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.05
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.05	9	53%	0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Yao Ming	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.02	0.04	8	67%	0.10	4	-0.09	8	100%	0.05
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.02	-0.06	11	32%	-0.03	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	9	41%	-0.01	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
Bonzi Wells	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.04	0.02	15	49%	0.06	6	-0.20	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.5	37.3	15.7	25.7	0.8	26.6	132.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +35.6%

HOU -13.1%

GSW +22.5%

GSW +6.6%

HOU -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	14.0	14.5	15.4	109.8	95.0	105.7
season	13.5	16.2		109.8	104.6
opponent	15.2	15.1		100.3	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.3	11.3	15.7	16.6	14.0
HOU	13.4	15.0	14.3	15.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Barnes	68	67	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.03	27	-10	37	13.8	14.5	-0.74	14.4	14.6	-0.23
Baron Davis	93	90	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.05	16	1	15	14.0	14.7	-0.69	14.5	14.7	-0.24
Monta Ellis	85	83	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.00	13	4	9	13.9	14.7	-0.80	14.8	13.0	1.78
Stephen Jackson	69	68	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.04	12	5	7	15.6	10.8	4.85	14.9	13.7	1.21
Al Harrington	67	66	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	5	7	15.2	11.9	3.28	15.0	13.5	1.44
Mickael Pietrus	23	23	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	12	-7	13.5	14.2	-0.67	12.8	15.0	-2.20
Kelenna Azubuike	48	48	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	15	-13	12.5	15.4	-2.91	14.3	14.7	-0.36
Andris Biedrins	57	55	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.02	-2	19	-21	12.9	15.5	-2.55	14.0	15.1	-1.15

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Novak	39	41	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.06	1	-18	19	14.2	14.7	-0.45	12.7	14.9	-2.23
Luis Scola	49	51	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.08	-3	-14	11	14.1	14.8	-0.74	12.8	15.3	-2.43
Aaron Brooks	8	8	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-13	9	16.1	14.3	1.79	13.5	14.1	-0.59
Charles Hayes	46	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	-12	7	14.3	14.6	-0.33	15.4	12.9	2.45
Shane Battier	89	90	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.03	-13	-4	-9	14.4	14.9	-0.48	14.0	14.4	-0.43
Bonzi Wells	70	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-13	9	14.6	14.1	0.50	13.8	14.6	-0.78
Rafer Alston	92	94	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.06	-13	-4	-9	14.3	16.1	-1.79	14.1	13.5	0.59
Yao Ming	56	57	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.05	-19	2	-21	15.1	13.7	1.47	14.9	12.9	2.06
Luther Head	51	51	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	0.09	-25	8	-33	14.4	14.6	-0.18	14.5	13.6	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.53,0.37,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.04,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 109, LAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.37,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.06,0,0	93.4%
MIA 87, NYK 72	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.61,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.26,0.24,0.1,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.2%
HOU 118, CHA 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.21,0.18,0.24,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.83,0.82,0.69,0.71,0.61,0.66,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.27,0.14,0.09,0.17,0.07,0.21,0.22,0.08,0	91.7%