NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	9.2 [106]		MVP	Zeke Nnaji (DEN): +20.1%
Cleveland Cavaliers	113		Comeback	7.4 [276]		LVP	Peyton Watson (DEN): -22.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zeke Nnaji	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.09	0.08	-0.02	6	72%	0.20	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.00	14	54%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Pickett	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	5	90%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.06	0.00	8	81%	0.14	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	0.14	-0.13	0.08	28	56%	0.00	1	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
DaRon Holmes II	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	6	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.22,-0.22	-0.03	-0.20	-0.01	22	46%	-0.14	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.13	-0.03	-0.00	24	66%	0.22	4	-0.11	2	0%	-0.06
Lonzo Ball	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	71%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darius Garland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.04	0.01	12	69%	0.31	6	-0.28	2	100%	0.01
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Tyrese Proctor	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Allen	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
De'Andre Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.01,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.09	0.01	12	57%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jaylon Tyson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	8	44%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.04
Evan Mobley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	10	32%	-0.11	0	0.00	5	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	0.1	26.8	0.4	37.4	0.2	37.7	129.3
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +41.3%

DEN -10.8%

CLE +30.8%

DEN -9.2%

DEN -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CLE	NBA	DEN	CLE	NBA
this game	15.8	13.0	14.2	108.0	113.0	113.6
season	14.8	13.4		119.6	114.8
opponent	14.5	14.1		111.9	115.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.2	17.6	14.9	15.5	15.8
CLE	13.4	13.1	11.7	13.9	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeke Nnaji	86	86	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.04	3	-8	11	16.2	13.3	2.88	12.8	14.0	-1.17
Jalen Pickett	55	55	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-5	5	16.5	14.8	1.75	13.3	12.6	0.79
Julian Strawther	27	26	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.10	-8	3	-11	16.1	15.6	0.48	12.8	13.0	-0.19
Peyton Watson	90	90	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-1	-3	15.9	14.1	1.84	12.8	14.8	-2.01
Jamal Murray	100	100	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	15.8	0.0	15.76	13.0	0.0	12.99
Bruce Brown	91	90	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.45	-5	0	-5	16.0	13.8	2.18	13.3	10.4	2.88
Tim Hardaway Jr.	87	86	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.38	-9	4	-13	15.7	16.1	-0.36	13.2	11.5	1.73
DaRon Holmes II	66	67	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.57	-3	-2	-1	16.8	13.7	3.16	13.6	11.8	1.75
Spencer Jones	89	88	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.39	-12	7	-19	16.0	13.5	2.49	13.2	11.5	1.69

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lonzo Ball	38	39	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.49	13	-8	21	14.3	12.2	2.14	17.1	14.9	2.24
Jarrett Allen	70	70	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.49	11	-6	17	13.4	12.1	1.27	16.3	14.6	1.70
Evan Mobley	92	92	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.43	11	-6	17	13.2	10.0	3.25	16.1	12.0	4.09
Darius Garland	85	84	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.44	9	-4	13	13.1	12.2	0.93	16.1	13.9	2.17
Donovan Mitchell	98	99	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.34	7	-2	9	13.2	2.0	11.21	15.9	3.0	12.89
De'Andre Hunter	100	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	13.0	0.0	12.99	15.8	0.0	15.76
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	74	75	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.10	2	3	-1	12.9	13.2	-0.22	16.0	15.1	0.91
Tyrese Proctor	16	15	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	7	-9	14.9	12.6	2.32	19.1	15.2	3.89
Craig Porter Jr.	73	73	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	5	-5	12.8	13.5	-0.72	15.7	15.9	-0.13
Jaylon Tyson	85	84	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.11	-1	6	-7	12.9	13.5	-0.64	16.3	12.7	3.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.56,0.36,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.67,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 103, SAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.25,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.42,0.36,0.54,0.6,0.45,0.29,0.69,0.96,1	92.0%
GSW 112, UTA 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.66,0.82,1	91.2%
GSW 131, POR 136	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.16,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.58,1	91.1%