NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	125		Excitement	7.0 [166]		MVP	Jalen Brunson (NYK): +37.5%
New York Knicks	132		Comeback	2.6 [248]		LVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK): -10.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kel'el Ware	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.24	0.09	0.04	15	87%	0.31	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.10	0.03	15	64%	0.21	1	-0.04	6	67%	0.02
Dru Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Norman Powell	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.00	17	56%	0.10	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.03
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	11	48%	0.04	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.03
Davion Mitchell	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.05	-0.03	0.06	8	81%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	8	39%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Simone Fontecchio	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	6	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.06

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Brunson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.37	0.07	0.07	26	75%	0.38	0	0.00	11	100%	0.04
Mikal Bridges	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.18	0.07	0.01	14	86%	0.31	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	4	82%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.01	10	65%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	5	100%	0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.05	0.01	12	62%	0.17	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Mohamed Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Kolek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	5	17%	-0.07	3	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	0.3	27.8	0.0	30.1	0.0	41.6	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.7	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +73.1%

MIA -13.9%

MIA -12.5%

MIA -0.2%

NYK +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	13.0	14.9	14.1	121.4	128.2	113.6
season	12.5	14.9		113.4	121.2
opponent	13.8	14.7		112.5	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.7	14.6	12.3	12.6	13.0
NYK	13.9	14.8	15.0	16.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Wiggins	60	60	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-4	1	13.9	11.8	2.12	15.2	14.6	0.54
Dru Smith	75	77	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.26	5	-12	17	13.2	12.4	0.83	14.6	16.0	-1.42
Simone Fontecchio	70	71	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.19	2	-9	11	13.1	12.7	0.40	14.6	15.7	-1.04
Davion Mitchell	85	85	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-3	-1	13.5	10.7	2.83	15.5	12.4	3.09
Bam Adebayo	94	95	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-4	1	13.1	11.6	1.58	14.9	15.7	-0.88
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	84	86	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.13	-11	4	-15	13.5	10.7	2.84	14.8	15.8	-1.06
Kel'el Ware	92	93	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	13.2	10.9	2.34	15.2	12.7	2.48
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	103	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	13.0	0.0	13.00	14.9	0.0	14.94
Norman Powell	91	91	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.30	-7	0	-7	13.1	11.9	1.23	15.3	12.3	2.95

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Brunson	103	103	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	14.9	0.0	14.94	13.0	0.0	13.00
OG Anunoby	103	103	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	14.9	0.0	14.94	13.0	0.0	13.00
Tyler Kolek	59	60	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.13	8	-1	9	16.0	13.5	2.52	13.9	11.8	2.08
Josh Hart	90	90	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.26	1	6	-5	15.5	10.9	4.60	13.2	11.7	1.50
Mikal Bridges	89	88	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	7	-7	15.6	11.0	4.56	13.3	11.3	2.03
Mitchell Robinson	96	96	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.16	2	5	-3	14.9	15.3	-0.37	13.1	12.1	0.92
Karl-Anthony Towns	68	68	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.32	-7	14	-21	15.7	13.5	2.25	13.6	11.8	1.77
Jordan Clarkson	68	68	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.20	-6	13	-19	14.7	15.4	-0.69	12.9	13.1	-0.17
Mohamed Diawara	40	38	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.07	-9	16	-25	14.0	15.5	-1.54	13.7	12.6	1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.82,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.77,0.9,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.71,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 93, ATL 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.7%
SEA 99, NOK 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.91,1	92.7%
SAS 72, MIA 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.74,0.79,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.98,1	92.6%