NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	72		Excitement	5.0 [800]		MVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): +6.5%
Miami Heat	79		Comeback	2.6 [1103]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -21.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vinny Del Negro	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	16	47%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Courtney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	29%	-0.05
Greg Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.03	0.05	17	65%	0.05	4	-0.11	9	67%	-0.03
Carl Herrera	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.09	0.01	17	47%	-0.08	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Avery Johnson	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.18	-0.05	-0.02	6	12%	-0.13	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.03	-0.04	13	54%	0.10	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.01	3	100%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	13	55%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Willie Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ed Pinckney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.02	-0.01	16	39%	-0.07	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	3.2	28.4	17.6	24.3	2.7	39.3	136.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +46.5%

SAS -7.2%

MIA +0.7%

MIA +7.6%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	19.5	15.3	15.6	87.8	94.0	104.4
season	16.8	15.8		100.8	103.1
opponent	16.3	15.4		98.3	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.9	19.4	21.2	18.2	19.5
MIA	14.7	11.9	14.8	20.6	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamie Feick	9	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-6	5	21.3	19.2	2.10	13.3	15.5	-2.19
Greg Anderson	31	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	1	-9	19.4	19.5	-0.17	14.2	15.9	-1.67
Monty Williams	68	68	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.24	2	-9	11	18.9	22.0	-3.06	15.8	13.1	2.75
Cory Alexander	18	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	0	-7	20.5	19.2	1.33	16.2	15.0	1.19
Joe Courtney	14	16	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	2	-11	22.0	18.9	3.06	13.1	15.8	-2.75
Will Perdue	51	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.35	1	-8	9	19.5	19.4	0.17	15.9	14.2	1.67
Avery Johnson	73	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-4	1	19.2	21.4	-2.23	14.7	19.6	-4.90
Vinny Del Negro	73	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.32	-4	-3	-1	19.5	19.6	-0.10	15.6	12.0	3.63
Carl Herrera	73	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	19.2	21.3	-2.10	15.5	13.3	2.19

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	66	64	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-3	13	15.3	15.3	0.01	19.8	18.2	1.66
Tim Hardaway	73	71	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.31	6	1	5	14.8	18.4	-3.54	19.6	18.7	0.85
P.J. Brown	71	69	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.28	4	3	1	15.0	17.0	-2.03	19.4	19.9	-0.55
Ike Austin	65	65	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	2	3	15.2	15.7	-0.51	19.2	20.6	-1.42
Keith Askins	30	29	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.19	2	5	-3	15.8	15.0	0.75	20.4	18.9	1.52
Voshon Lenard	60	59	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	5	-3	15.9	13.8	2.03	19.0	20.6	-1.59
Ed Pinckney	25	23	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	2	3	15.8	15.1	0.79	19.8	19.3	0.50
John Crotty	22	22	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.01	7	0	7	16.0	15.0	0.91	19.0	19.6	-0.70
Willie Anderson	8	8	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	13	-19	13.5	15.5	-1.97	18.7	19.5	-0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.74,0.79,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 82, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.59,0.74,0.75,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.9,0.77,0.99,1	94.7%
OKC 100, BOS 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.79,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.93,0.96,1	94.4%
PHX 96, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,1	94.2%