NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	82		Excitement	6.1 [619]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +20.5%
Orlando Magic	88		Comeback	2.6 [861]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -15.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	17	61%	0.13	2	-0.04	7	86%	-0.00
Josh Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	14	61%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Hilton Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	12	37%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.05,-0.11,-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	11	38%	-0.07	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	-0.16	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	15	44%	-0.01	5	-0.15	2	0%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.09	-0.01	12	77%	0.35	7	-0.15	19	79%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.11	0.06	-0.01	16	29%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	12	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	15	36%	-0.07	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	6	35%	-0.06	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.0	33.5	16.0	29.0	2.5	41.2	149.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +5.1%

ORL +17.2%

ORL +19.8%

ORL +3.3%

ORL +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	ORL	NBA	ATL	ORL	NBA
this game	17.8	15.0	15.5	94.3	98.9	105.7
season	16.5	15.2		104.0	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.5		101.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	19.0	18.7	18.1	15.6	17.8
ORL	17.9	12.7	14.6	15.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collins	31	31	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.04	2	-8	10	19.8	16.7	3.11	17.7	13.5	4.18
Damien Wilkins	6	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-3	0	17.0	17.8	-0.83	12.5	15.2	-2.67
Josh Smith	61	64	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.30	8	-14	22	17.6	18.2	-0.55	15.5	13.8	1.65
Zaza Pachulia	34	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.31	6	-12	18	16.9	18.3	-1.36	16.0	14.3	1.67
Josh Powell	14	13	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	1	-8	19.4	17.5	1.98	13.2	15.3	-2.15
Hilton Armstrong	13	13	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	3	-12	18.6	17.6	0.99	11.6	15.6	-3.95
Marvin Williams	36	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	1	-8	18.1	17.6	0.49	15.2	14.9	0.30
Al Horford	48	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.34	0	-6	6	17.0	18.7	-1.72	15.4	14.4	0.98
Kirk Hinrich	56	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	3	-12	18.0	17.3	0.70	14.5	15.8	-1.35
Jamal Crawford	58	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	2	-10	17.2	19.0	-1.79	13.8	17.7	-3.84
Joe Johnson	78	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-3	0	17.7	18.4	-0.75	15.1	14.2	0.81

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	75	72	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-8	22	14.7	16.3	-1.54	17.6	18.4	-0.76
Jameer Nelson	70	69	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.15	12	-6	18	15.1	14.7	0.32	17.8	17.6	0.20
Dwight Howard	89	87	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	15.0	0.0	14.99	17.8	0.0	17.77
JJ Redick	38	37	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	-7	20	13.6	16.1	-2.51	18.1	17.5	0.64
Brandon Bass	37	38	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.10	8	-2	10	13.9	15.7	-1.78	18.2	17.4	0.74
Ryan Anderson	52	49	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.22	-2	8	-10	15.7	13.9	1.78	17.4	18.2	-0.74
Jason Richardson	52	52	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.28	-4	10	-14	15.8	13.8	2.06	17.2	18.6	-1.44
Quentin Richardson	23	22	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.22	-6	12	-18	14.9	15.0	-0.16	17.9	17.7	0.13
Gilbert Arenas	11	11	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.08	-11	17	-28	15.1	15.0	0.12	18.2	17.7	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.59,0.74,0.75,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.9,0.77,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 72, MIA 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.74,0.79,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.98,1	94.7%
PHX 96, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,1	93.9%
DET 89, PHX 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,1	93.3%