NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	110		Excitement	8.5 [92]		MVP	Jalen Duren (DET): +39.3%
Detroit Pistons	122		Comeback	3.1 [195]		LVP	P.J. Washington (DAL): -32.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D'Angelo Russell	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.28,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.17	0.17	-0.01	17	79%	0.57	4	-0.22	5	80%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.00	3	78%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Klay Thompson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	9	61%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Christie	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.02	9	65%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Cooper Flagg	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	14	44%	0.08	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.08
Naji Marshall	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	70%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Brandon Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	7	55%	0.08	3	-0.09	8	62%	-0.02
Caleb Martin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	2	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Washington	-0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.28,-0.28,-0.33,-0.33	-0.14	-0.19	-0.00	13	23%	-0.21	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Duren	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.29	0.14	0.04	16	82%	0.39	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.14	0.13	0.00	11	72%	0.27	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Isaiah Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.09	-0.00	7	56%	0.14	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Javonte Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.00	6	58%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cade Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.06	0.04	16	52%	0.08	1	-0.03	8	62%	0.00
Chaz Lanier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caris LeVert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	6	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	12	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	6	33%	-0.04
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.08	-0.02	12	38%	-0.08	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Ronald Holland II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.4	0.0	34.0	0.0	30.2	0.0	35.0	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +2.3%

DAL -2.9%

DET +11.0%

DET +39.1%

DET +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DET	NBA	DAL	DET	NBA
this game	14.0	14.4	14.1	107.8	120.8	113.7
season	14.0	14.1		108.0	116.0
opponent	14.0	14.0		110.1	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.3	13.0	15.0	13.8	14.0
DET	15.1	12.7	15.0	15.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gafford	85	84	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.19	-11	-1	-10	14.6	10.6	3.99	14.2	15.4	-1.21
Brandon Williams	85	85	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-7	2	14.3	12.1	2.22	13.9	17.1	-3.23
Caleb Martin	75	76	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-6	0	14.6	12.3	2.23	13.8	16.4	-2.60
Naji Marshall	98	97	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.22	-7	-5	-2	14.2	8.5	5.69	14.4	15.0	-0.62
D'Angelo Russell	83	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.13	-10	-2	-8	14.5	11.7	2.75	14.9	12.0	2.93
Dwight Powell	82	81	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.23	-9	-3	-6	14.3	12.7	1.52	14.0	16.2	-2.24
Cooper Flagg	102	101	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	0	-12	14.0	0.0	13.97	14.4	0.0	14.41
Max Christie	95	93	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.23	-18	6	-24	14.1	12.6	1.50	14.4	14.9	-0.51
P.J. Washington	88	87	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.24	-19	7	-26	14.1	13.4	0.63	14.2	15.6	-1.35
Klay Thompson	60	59	-0.96	0.46	-1.43	-0.02	-32	20	-52	14.5	13.1	1.41	13.6	15.5	-1.91

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Duren	80	81	1.01	-0.51	1.53	0.13	30	-18	48	14.0	15.9	-1.89	14.6	11.5	3.14
Javonte Green	51	52	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.21	19	-7	26	13.7	15.1	-1.41	13.6	14.3	-0.69
Duncan Robinson	98	98	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.26	9	3	6	14.4	14.0	0.42	14.2	8.2	5.95
Cade Cunningham	101	101	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	0	12	14.4	0.0	14.41	14.1	3.0	11.08
Ausar Thompson	99	99	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	0	12	14.5	10.0	4.49	14.2	5.7	8.56
Tobias Harris	100	100	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.12	12	0	12	14.4	18.0	-3.63	14.1	7.0	7.11
Ronald Holland II	93	94	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.20	1	11	-10	14.3	15.7	-1.46	14.3	10.2	4.04
Isaiah Stewart	81	81	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.06	9	3	6	13.8	16.7	-2.86	14.7	11.2	3.50
Caris LeVert	69	68	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.17	6	6	0	14.1	15.0	-0.87	14.7	12.4	2.34
Chaz Lanier	27	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	13	-14	12.5	15.1	-2.58	13.3	14.2	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.72,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.79,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 105, IND 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.79,0.95,0.99,1	91.5%
BOS 89, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.59,0.46,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.93,1	91.4%
MIL 110, MIN 114	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.4,0.61,0.47,0.64,0.94,0.96,1	91.3%