NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	110		Excitement	8.1 [272]		MVP	Ryan Rollins (MIL): +28.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	120		Comeback	1.9 [251]		LVP	Al Horford (GSW): -9.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Buddy Hield	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.00	6	67%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Richard	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	2	117%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jonathan Kuminga	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	11	80%	0.21	5	-0.16	8	100%	0.06
Stephen Curry	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	19	59%	0.18	5	-0.13	8	87%	-0.01
Gui Santos	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler III	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	18	52%	0.05	2	-0.07	8	100%	0.05
Gary Payton II	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Quinten Post	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Moses Moody	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	25%	-0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Rollins	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.21	0.15	0.07	21	71%	0.32	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.00	12	71%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.10	-0.01	15	53%	0.16	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	7	62%	0.09	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	14	42%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Coffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	10	60%	0.05	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.08	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	0.0	31.4	0.0	29.2	0.0	35.6	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +46.9%

GSW -20.5%

GSW -5.6%

MIL +27.7%

MIL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIL	NBA	GSW	MIL	NBA
this game	13.4	14.1	14.2	105.8	114.3	113.7
season	14.7	14.7		112.5	111.4
opponent	14.3	13.8		117.6	113.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.4	12.2	13.5	12.4	13.4
MIL	11.7	15.0	14.2	15.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gui Santos	9	9	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-15	20	12.6	13.5	-0.91	15.6	14.0	1.55
Quinten Post	21	21	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-13	16	14.1	13.2	0.89	14.2	14.1	0.12
Moses Moody	76	77	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.11	4	-14	18	13.5	13.0	0.58	13.8	15.1	-1.31
Gary Payton II	51	53	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-10	10	14.3	12.5	1.71	13.3	15.0	-1.62
Draymond Green	85	86	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-13	16	13.0	14.9	-1.85	14.8	11.2	3.58
Buddy Hield	76	76	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-7	4	14.1	11.5	2.53	13.7	15.2	-1.47
Will Richard	57	58	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-6	2	13.7	13.0	0.74	14.3	13.9	0.41
Jonathan Kuminga	89	89	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-7	4	13.1	15.3	-2.28	14.6	11.4	3.27
Stephen Curry	88	89	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-7	4	13.2	14.4	-1.17	14.6	11.4	3.27
Jimmy Butler III	104	105	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	13.4	0.0	13.38	14.1	0.0	14.14
Al Horford	94	94	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.20	-12	2	-14	13.8	9.9	3.86	14.0	15.6	-1.67
Brandin Podziemski	99	100	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	1	-12	13.7	7.6	6.08	14.1	15.8	-1.74

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Kuzma	97	97	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.17	9	1	8	14.3	12.0	2.32	13.3	15.1	-1.89
Bobby Portis	80	79	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.14	10	0	10	13.7	15.6	-1.86	14.0	11.4	2.61
Ryan Rollins	97	96	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	6	-2	14.4	10.7	3.67	13.2	15.5	-2.29
AJ Green	95	94	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.25	2	8	-6	14.5	10.9	3.58	13.1	15.9	-2.78
Taurean Prince	75	74	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	8	2	6	13.9	14.9	-1.01	14.0	11.9	2.04
Cole Anthony	76	76	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	4	2	13.5	15.9	-2.38	13.9	11.9	2.09
Amir Coffey	70	68	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.20	2	8	-6	14.0	14.5	-0.56	13.6	12.9	0.67
Myles Turner	92	90	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.25	-4	14	-18	14.6	10.8	3.85	13.1	15.1	-2.03
Gary Trent Jr.	87	86	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.22	-3	13	-16	14.8	11.2	3.59	13.0	15.0	-1.95
Gary Harris	9	9	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	15	-20	15.6	14.0	1.55	12.6	13.5	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.56,0.67,0.82,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.9,0.69,0.9,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 99, IND 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.74,0.78,0.71,0.53,0.68,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.75,0.93,0.99,1,1	91.8%
CHA 93, DAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.38,0.41,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.53,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.89,0.84,0.99,1	91.5%
LAC 106, ATL 112	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.57,0.51,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.5,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.45,0.67,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.91,1	91.5%