NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	112		Excitement	8.8 [78]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +29.0%
Houston Rockets	109		Comeback	2.6 [120]		LVP	Kevin Durant (HOU): -18.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.29	0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.29	0.10	0.21	0.02	16	72%	0.40	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Nikola Joki?	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.01,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.17	0.13	0.04	-0.00	20	68%	0.27	4	-0.10	10	80%	0.03
Cameron Johnson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16	0.02	0.13	-0.01	6	56%	0.18	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Spencer Jones	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	1	150%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	11	52%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Bruce Brown	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	64%	0.06	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reed Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.24	0.04	0.01	13	84%	0.30	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.06
Amen Thompson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	0.00	18	59%	0.22	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	-0.00	2	71%	0.10	1	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,-0.03,-0.13,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	-0.01	20	49%	0.09	3	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	14%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	14	45%	0.10	4	-0.25	3	67%	-0.02
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.14	-0.03	15	39%	-0.19	2	0.01	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	0.0	28.5	0.0	33.9	0.0	39.1	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +47.5%

DEN +8.0%

HOU -27.0%

DEN +16.6%

DEN +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.1	16.4	14.1	116.7	117.2	113.7
season	14.4	15.2		123.3	119.9
opponent	13.8	14.0		109.7	114.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.9	15.2	13.0	15.0	14.1
HOU	16.4	14.8	19.7	15.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Jones	84	82	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.37	7	-4	11	14.2	12.8	1.39	16.4	16.4	0.06
Peyton Watson	96	93	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	14.1	0.0	14.05	16.4	0.0	16.42
Tim Hardaway Jr.	95	92	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.31	3	0	3	14.2	2.0	12.18	16.6	2.0	14.58
Nikola Joki?	92	89	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	3	-3	14.2	11.7	2.40	16.1	22.5	-6.35
Jamal Murray	85	84	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.49	-5	8	-13	14.6	10.1	4.47	16.2	18.2	-2.00
Cameron Johnson	69	67	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.47	-10	13	-23	14.8	12.3	2.49	16.4	16.5	-0.17
Jonas Valan?i?nas	58	56	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.11	7	-4	11	14.0	14.2	-0.22	17.0	15.5	1.55
Aaron Gordon	7	7	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	-1	5	12.9	14.1	-1.29	17.4	16.3	1.09
Bruce Brown	78	75	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.11	-3	6	-9	14.1	13.9	0.20	16.7	15.2	1.48

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Holiday	68	70	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.48	12	-15	27	16.6	15.8	0.85	14.6	12.5	2.13
Clint Capela	20	21	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.14	-13	10	-23	16.0	16.5	-0.53	13.8	14.1	-0.37
Jabari Smith Jr.	84	88	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.31	0	-3	3	16.2	18.3	-2.12	14.4	10.1	4.28
Reed Sheppard	88	91	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-3	3	16.3	18.4	-2.09	14.3	9.8	4.49
Kevin Durant	90	93	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-4	5	16.4	18.0	-1.63	14.1	14.0	0.05
Josh Okogie	92	95	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.37	-3	0	-3	16.6	2.0	14.58	14.2	2.0	12.18
Alperen Sengun	92	95	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.37	-3	0	-3	16.6	2.0	14.58	14.2	2.0	12.18
Amen Thompson	93	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	16.4	0.0	16.42	14.1	0.0	14.05
Steven Adams	63	66	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.28	-8	5	-13	17.5	14.1	3.37	15.2	11.5	3.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.38,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.42,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.47,0.29,0.22,0.14,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 90, LAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.53,0.71,0.85,0.64,0.46,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.06,0.02,0	91.6%
MEM 113, MIN 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.26,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.46,0.32,0.16,0.03,0,0	91.2%
MIN 106, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.37,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.46,0.34,0.19,0.28,0.14,0.04,0	91.0%