NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	9.4 [46]		MVP	Jerami Grant (POR): +47.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	109		Comeback	23.6 [15]		LVP	Christian Braun (DEN): -18.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Joki?	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.27	0.11	0.16	-0.00	10	78%	0.32	3	-0.05	7	71%	0.03
Jamal Murray	0.18	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.08	0.01	15	67%	0.26	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	10	48%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	8	56%	0.11	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Bruce Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	42%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cameron Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.01	7	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Peyton Watson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	67%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.17	-0.02	-0.16	-0.00	11	54%	-0.02	3	-0.15	4	100%	0.02
Christian Braun	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18	-0.11	-0.06	0.01	6	36%	-0.08	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.48	0.48	0.03	0.45	-0.00	11	55%	0.55	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.15
Shaedon Sharpe	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	14	61%	0.15	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.02
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	13	66%	0.21	4	-0.12	9	78%	0.02
Robert Williams III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	80%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Jrue Holiday	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.07	0.06	-0.04	13	39%	0.11	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Blake Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Donovan Clingan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kris Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.1,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.04
Toumani Camara	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	12	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Rayan Rupert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duop Reath	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	43.7	0.3	29.6	0.0	30.3	0.0	40.6	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +2.6%

POR +26.8%

DEN -16.6%

POR +33.2%

POR +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.4	14.1	14.1	105.9	107.9	113.7
season	14.4	13.5		123.3	112.1
opponent	13.9	14.0		116.1	114.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.2	13.3	15.3	14.9	14.4
POR	14.5	12.9	16.7	12.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valan?i?nas	46	47	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-1	0	14.0	14.7	-0.69	13.7	14.4	-0.66
Tim Hardaway Jr.	82	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	1	-4	14.9	12.1	2.89	14.2	13.8	0.31
Cameron Johnson	93	93	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.37	-2	0	-2	14.5	13.0	1.52	14.3	12.1	2.14
Peyton Watson	87	88	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	2	-6	14.8	12.1	2.62	14.2	13.5	0.64
Nikola Joki?	97	96	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.46	0	-2	2	14.2	20.2	-6.10	14.3	10.6	3.68
Bruce Brown	84	85	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.44	-8	6	-14	14.7	12.8	1.96	14.1	13.9	0.19
Christian Braun	82	83	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.42	-10	8	-18	14.5	14.2	0.29	14.0	14.7	-0.76
Aaron Gordon	93	93	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.52	-8	6	-14	14.4	14.4	0.02	13.8	17.4	-3.56
Jamal Murray	91	91	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.43	-13	11	-24	14.5	13.0	1.55	13.5	19.1	-5.55

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jrue Holiday	96	97	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.49	4	-2	6	14.1	14.6	-0.53	14.2	18.5	-4.27
Jerami Grant	97	97	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.44	3	-1	4	14.3	9.0	5.31	14.6	10.5	4.06
Toumani Camara	91	93	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	0	2	14.4	11.6	2.77	14.4	14.4	0.02
Deni Avdija	100	101	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.45	2	0	2	14.2	1.0	13.23	14.4	0.0	14.40
Shaedon Sharpe	87	88	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	2	-2	14.1	13.9	0.28	14.6	13.0	1.60
Robert Williams III	75	76	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.10	1	1	0	14.7	12.5	2.21	14.1	15.3	-1.23
Blake Wesley	38	36	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	6	-10	14.7	13.8	0.90	13.8	14.7	-0.96
Duop Reath	45	45	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.24	4	-2	6	14.3	13.9	0.38	14.6	14.2	0.41
Donovan Clingan	82	81	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.09	-7	9	-16	14.4	12.6	1.81	14.4	14.5	-0.13
Kris Murray	93	92	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.29	-1	3	-4	14.7	7.6	7.03	14.7	11.2	3.48
Rayan Rupert	43	43	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	0.01	-12	14	-26	15.7	12.9	2.70	14.4	14.4	-0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.48,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.17,0.24,0.17,0.45,0.37,0.16,0.04,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 110, MIL 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.28,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.29,0.22,0.45,0.55,0.09,0.23,1	92.9%
DAL 94, DEN 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.31,0.41,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.29,0.23,0.26,1	90.8%
GSW 116, LAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.27,0.32,0.45,0.43,0.27,1	90.7%