NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	110		Excitement	9.9 [73]		MVP	Ja Morant (MEM): +64.2%
Miami Heat	108		Comeback	2.4 [553]		LVP	Desmond Bane (MEM): -29.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ja Morant	0.64	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.64	0.08	0.55	-0.01	22	60%	0.73	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Jaylen Wells	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.08	-0.01	7	81%	0.19	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Scotty Pippen Jr.	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.05	0.00	9	85%	0.24	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.1,0.1	-0.04	0.10	-0.03	11	57%	0.19	5	-0.09	1	0%	-0.03
Santi Aldama	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	64%	0.13	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Zach Edey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.11	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Lamar Stevens	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Bane	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.09	-0.19	0.01	23	34%	-0.29	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.4	0.40	0.15	0.25	-0.00	23	66%	0.47	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.07
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.13	0.00	8	61%	0.19	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	-0.00	-0.03	13	46%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	8	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	6	17%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.1,0.01,-0.1	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	-0.00	26	48%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.5	29.0	16.6	30.5	2.7	29.7	140.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +60.1%

MEM +2.7%

MEM +8.7%

MIA -21.2%

MIA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIA	NBA	MEM	MIA	NBA
this game	13.7	15.5	14.4	112.2	109.1	113.1
season	13.3	14.9		116.5	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.3		111.2	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.3	12.6	12.6	15.8	13.7
MIA	14.0	15.7	16.2	16.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaren Jackson Jr.	74	76	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.37	5	-3	8	13.7	13.7	0.03	16.2	13.3	2.91
Ja Morant	65	68	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.41	3	-1	4	13.6	14.0	-0.40	16.0	14.4	1.57
Scotty Pippen Jr.	54	53	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	2	-2	14.7	12.5	2.20	14.5	16.7	-2.24
Desmond Bane	77	75	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	3	-4	13.6	14.2	-0.64	15.1	16.7	-1.60
Santi Aldama	59	59	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.37	-4	6	-10	14.4	12.7	1.65	14.5	16.9	-2.44
Jaylen Wells	51	56	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	-2	6	13.0	14.5	-1.53	16.6	14.0	2.64
Zach Edey	59	58	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	0	2	13.1	14.7	-1.68	16.1	14.7	1.39
Lamar Stevens	4	5	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.04	1	1	0	13.7	13.7	0.02	10.2	15.8	-5.58
Luke Kennard	47	45	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	2	-2	13.8	13.7	0.14	15.2	15.7	-0.54

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Anderson	41	39	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-4	6	15.4	15.6	-0.22	14.6	13.1	1.51
Alec Burks	35	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-2	2	15.5	15.5	-0.01	12.7	14.3	-1.64
Tyler Herro	75	76	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-3	4	15.6	15.3	0.27	13.6	14.2	-0.64
Duncan Robinson	24	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-2	2	15.7	15.4	0.23	14.2	13.6	0.64
Davion Mitchell	75	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-5	8	15.3	16.2	-1.00	14.1	12.5	1.69
Kel'el Ware	72	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-3	4	15.2	16.4	-1.20	13.6	14.2	-0.68
Haywood Highsmith	53	53	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	3	-8	15.7	15.2	0.52	13.8	13.6	0.21
Bam Adebayo	73	68	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.40	-5	3	-8	15.9	14.3	1.66	13.4	14.6	-1.25
Pelle Larsson	47	48	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.43	-7	5	-12	15.4	15.6	-0.25	13.8	13.6	0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.45,0.19,0.28,0.55,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 88, DET 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.28,0	91.5%
SAS 98, SEA 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.31,0.64,0.31,0.17,0	91.1%
SEA 72, CLE 66	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.17,0.23,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.68,0.17,0	90.7%