NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	72		Excitement	7.1 [402]		MVP	Sam Perkins (SEA): +29.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	66		Comeback	2.1 [591]		LVP	Danny Ferry (CLE): -34.8%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Perkins	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.29,0.29	0.08	0.22	0.00	8	82%	0.38	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Terry Cummings	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Ehlo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate McMillan	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.07	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Detlef Schrempf	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	-0.06	10	42%	0.02	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Jim McIlvaine	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	3	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Gary Payton	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	12	29%	-0.10	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	10	53%	-0.02	5	-0.16	10	100%	0.06
Shawn Kemp	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	7	50%	-0.02	4	-0.16	4	100%	0.02

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.08	0.20	-0.02	15	34%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Antonio Lang	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Phills	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.05	0.03	10	75%	0.10	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	72%	0.04	3	-0.10	10	50%	-0.06
Donny Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	2	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Mills	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	10	50%	0.00	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	9	27%	-0.13	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.25,-0.35	-0.35	-0.08	-0.27	-0.01	7	29%	-0.09	2	-0.26	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	24.9	15.0	28.1	0.8	37.3	132.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +4.2%

SEA +18.6%

SEA +11.0%

SEA +15.1%

SEA +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	CLE	NBA	SEA	CLE	NBA
this game	17.4	19.3	15.6	92.3	83.5	104.4
season	14.9	17.8		108.9	102.1
opponent	16.1	16.2		100.0	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	18.7	17.2	16.4	17.6	17.4
CLE	20.2	20.7	18.8	17.5	19.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Detlef Schrempf	60	60	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.32	5	1	4	18.1	15.0	3.15	18.7	21.1	-2.37
Hersey Hawkins	67	66	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.32	5	1	4	17.6	16.6	0.92	19.0	20.3	-1.26
Shawn Kemp	64	64	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.28	4	2	2	17.3	17.8	-0.44	18.3	23.2	-4.87
Sam Perkins	42	44	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.09	9	-3	12	15.8	19.3	-3.55	20.3	18.0	2.30
Gary Payton	63	65	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	5	-4	17.1	18.7	-1.62	18.2	24.1	-5.94
Nate McMillan	34	35	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.06	7	-1	8	15.3	19.1	-3.83	19.9	18.7	1.14
Craig Ehlo	26	27	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	2	2	18.7	16.8	1.90	21.4	18.2	3.22
Terry Cummings	12	12	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	4	-2	18.7	17.2	1.57	21.8	18.8	3.04
Jim McIlvaine	22	22	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.16	-7	13	-20	20.4	16.2	4.16	20.2	18.9	1.29

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Lang	8	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-4	2	18.1	19.4	-1.26	18.5	17.3	1.20
Chris Mills	58	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-9	12	18.8	20.4	-1.60	18.0	15.9	2.11
Bobby Phills	62	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-9	12	18.6	21.8	-3.20	18.1	15.2	2.93
Danny Ferry	67	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-6	6	19.1	19.9	-0.78	18.3	12.8	5.42
Donny Marshall	13	12	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	0	-6	21.2	18.9	2.28	11.5	18.5	-7.00
Bob Sura	40	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	0	-6	20.3	18.2	2.17	17.6	17.3	0.29
Tyrone Hill	56	56	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.43	3	-9	12	18.5	21.1	-2.59	17.9	16.3	1.60
Vitaly Potapenko	30	29	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.02	-14	8	-22	21.2	18.0	3.19	15.5	18.6	-3.09
Terrell Brandon	61	62	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.24	-11	5	-16	19.2	19.3	-0.03	16.8	20.0	-3.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.17,0.23,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.68,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 111, MEM 110	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.15,0.33,0.24,0.46,0.57,0.42,0	92.4%
MIA 102, BKN 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.45,0.02,0	91.9%
SAC 113, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.14,0.05,0.06,0.15,0.28,0.38,0.46,0.68,0.15,0	91.7%