NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	113		Excitement	7.8 [337]		MVP	Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC): +25.8%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	2.2 [129]		LVP	Derrick White (SAS): -17.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Willie Cauley-Stein	0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26	0.09	0.18	0.01	9	74%	0.30	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.07
Buddy Hield	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.18	0.05	0.02	15	70%	0.21	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Yogi Ferrell	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.04	0.12	-0.01	8	62%	0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13	0.01	0.11	-0.01	12	54%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	11	56%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Corey Brewer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
De'Aaron Fox	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	12	44%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Nemanja Bjelica	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	56%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	-0.01	9	71%	0.15	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.01	12	75%	0.21	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.03	-0.02	11	56%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.00	24	50%	0.09	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.08,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	0.00	16	50%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	8	31%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	10	30%	-0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	27.5	14.7	27.3	1.7	35.3	131.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +40.1%

SAC +22.2%

SAS -15.3%

SAC +1.6%

SAC +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	14.7	15.6	14.3	118.9	111.6	109.3
season	13.3	14.8		109.2	111.7
opponent	14.4	14.3		110.4	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.6	13.4	13.9	16.2	14.7
SAS	16.3	14.3	15.5	16.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yogi Ferrell	31	32	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.02	22	-15	37	14.9	14.6	0.36	14.4	16.2	-1.78
Corey Brewer	42	43	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.07	19	-12	31	14.0	15.2	-1.25	14.5	16.5	-1.98
Bogdan Bogdanovic	61	61	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	-1	9	15.7	12.9	2.73	15.2	16.4	-1.19
Kosta Koufos	38	37	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.01	11	-4	15	14.3	14.9	-0.63	15.0	16.0	-0.97
Harrison Barnes	71	70	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.13	2	5	-3	14.2	16.1	-1.86	15.7	15.4	0.35
Willie Cauley-Stein	57	58	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.28	-4	11	-15	14.9	14.3	0.63	16.0	15.0	0.97
Nemanja Bjelica	50	50	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.30	-7	14	-21	15.1	14.2	0.94	16.0	15.2	0.80
Buddy Hield	61	61	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	8	-9	14.4	15.3	-0.89	16.4	14.2	2.16
De'Aaron Fox	64	63	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.28	-15	22	-37	14.6	14.9	-0.36	16.2	14.4	1.78

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davis Bertans	33	35	0.27	-0.77	1.03	0.24	1	-8	9	15.2	15.9	-0.67	16.3	13.8	2.52
LaMarcus Aldridge	70	70	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.23	10	-17	27	16.0	14.6	1.44	14.5	15.3	-0.85
DeMar DeRozan	70	71	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.24	6	-13	19	16.3	13.7	2.63	14.4	15.5	-1.13
Bryn Forbes	60	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.37	8	-15	23	16.0	14.9	1.07	15.4	13.5	1.91
Derrick White	59	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-4	1	16.3	14.6	1.72	13.8	15.9	-2.08
Patty Mills	43	43	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	4	-15	14.7	16.4	-1.73	15.9	13.7	2.13
Marco Belinelli	49	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.01	-15	8	-23	15.0	16.3	-1.24	14.0	15.5	-1.54
Jakob Poeltl	25	25	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.06	-17	10	-27	14.6	16.0	-1.44	15.3	14.5	0.85
Rudy Gay	66	64	-0.94	0.44	-1.38	-0.53	-14	7	-21	15.2	16.5	-1.29	14.0	16.1	-2.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.14,0.05,0.06,0.15,0.28,0.38,0.46,0.68,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 72, CLE 66	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.17,0.23,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.68,0.17,0	91.7%
DET 90, NJN 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.41,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.43,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.21,0.57,0.09,0	90.2%
CHH 78, SAS 73	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.18,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.37,0.29,0.27,0	90.1%