NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	5.9 [615]		MVP	Luguentz Dort (OKC): +20.4%
Oklahoma City Thunder	119		Comeback	1.1 [1188]		LVP	Jalen Duren (DET): -12.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.19	-0.02	0.02	14	77%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Reed	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.06	0.04	-0.05	12	48%	0.12	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Lindy Waters III	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.02	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	62%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	15	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	18	39%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Duren	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.05	-0.05	10	43%	0.01	6	-0.14	10	70%	-0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.04	0.10	-0.06	11	64%	0.24	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.00	17	57%	0.16	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.04
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	14	59%	0.09	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.02
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	10	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adam Flagler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Branden Carlson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dillon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.07	-0.05	0.05	26	52%	-0.02	1	-0.01	12	92%	0.03
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.4	2.8	28.8	14.8	29.7	2.8	31.0	142.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +17.5%

OKC +1.5%

OKC +4.2%

OKC +27.0%

DET -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	OKC	NBA	DET	OKC	NBA
this game	14.5	13.4	14.4	100.0	115.5	113.1
season	14.1	13.7		114.0	118.5
opponent	14.7	14.5		105.8	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.4	14.3	15.2	14.2	14.5
OKC	10.4	14.5	14.8	14.6	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindy Waters III	36	37	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-18	20	14.6	14.5	0.13	15.0	12.5	2.48
Paul Reed	31	29	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-19	22	14.8	14.4	0.45	13.3	13.5	-0.18
Malik Beasley	71	70	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-16	16	14.1	15.6	-1.51	14.0	12.2	1.89
Ausar Thompson	64	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.09	-14	-2	-12	14.2	15.1	-0.93	13.4	13.5	-0.06
Simone Fontecchio	26	27	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	-9	2	14.2	14.6	-0.39	14.3	13.1	1.21
Tim Hardaway Jr.	81	81	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	-0.03	-11	-5	-6	14.5	14.7	-0.20	13.2	14.1	-0.89
Tobias Harris	48	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	0	-16	15.0	14.1	0.89	12.0	14.7	-2.65
Jalen Duren	72	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.13	-19	3	-22	14.4	14.8	-0.45	13.5	13.3	0.18
Dennis Schroder	86	84	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.05	-18	2	-20	15.0	12.1	2.88	13.0	15.6	-2.63

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	77	77	0.69	-0.19	0.89	-0.19	30	-14	44	12.7	15.7	-2.97	14.8	13.7	1.16
Chet Holmgren	72	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.00	16	0	16	13.0	14.5	-1.45	14.7	14.1	0.57
Luguentz Dort	71	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.09	18	-2	20	13.3	13.8	-0.54	14.5	14.5	0.06
Cason Wallace	69	69	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.11	11	5	6	13.0	14.3	-1.24	14.9	13.7	1.18
Jalen Williams	72	71	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	8	0	13.8	12.5	1.36	14.0	15.6	-1.60
Isaiah Hartenstein	49	49	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	13	-10	15.0	12.0	3.06	13.7	15.3	-1.58
Dillon Jones	22	22	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	13	-10	13.6	13.4	0.25	14.7	14.5	0.20
Kenrich Williams	37	37	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	16	-16	12.8	13.8	-0.93	14.7	14.4	0.28
Adam Flagler	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	2.0	13.5	-11.55	25.0	14.4	10.58
Branden Carlson	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	2.0	13.5	-11.55	25.0	14.4	10.58
Isaiah Joe	44	44	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.15	-9	25	-34	14.8	12.4	2.45	14.1	14.8	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.88,0.89,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.75,0.86,0.89,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 122, POR 126	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1	95.0%
ORL 106, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.6%
CHA 98, PHI 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.87,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.92,0.88,0.79,0.8,0.93,0.9,0.97,1,1,1	94.4%