NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	114		Excitement	7.9 [269]		MVP	Gary Trent Jr. (MIL): +27.4%
Sacramento Kings	108		Comeback	6.9 [144]		LVP	Zach LaVine (SAC): -12.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Trent Jr.	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.22,0.16,0.27,0.27	0.03	0.22	-0.02	11	50%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Porter Jr.	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.10	0.01	10	90%	0.32	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.07	-0.01	9	83%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08	0.11	-0.02	0.01	20	60%	0.18	2	-0.10	13	62%	-0.02
Brook Lopez	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.03	0.01	15	64%	0.12	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	58%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Pat Connaughton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	5	30%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Rollins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.08	0.01	11	75%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jake LaRavia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.07	-0.01	9	55%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.26,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.04	-0.02	18	51%	0.12	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Keon Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	-0.05	0.00	10	80%	0.20	3	-0.14	5	100%	0.03
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.04	12	29%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Markelle Fultz	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.06	0.00	12	52%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Devin Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	17	43%	-0.04	4	-0.08	3	33%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	1.6	30.8	14.6	27.2	2.5	26.4	129.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.2	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +65.7%

SAC -12.2%

MIL +18.7%

SAC -22.7%

MIL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.7	16.8	14.4	125.3	117.4	113.1
season	14.4	14.1		113.1	115.0
opponent	14.7	14.3		115.1	111.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.9	14.8	12.2	14.1	14.7
SAC	14.9	15.8	18.3	18.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Porter Jr.	51	51	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.23	15	-9	24	13.8	15.8	-2.05	18.1	15.1	2.91
Gary Trent Jr.	66	67	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.29	13	-7	20	14.3	15.8	-1.51	17.4	15.0	2.42
Brook Lopez	68	69	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.43	5	1	4	15.0	13.7	1.35	16.2	18.4	-2.17
AJ Green	48	49	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	-5	16	13.5	16.0	-2.55	18.5	14.8	3.70
Kyle Kuzma	64	64	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	2	2	14.6	14.9	-0.21	17.5	15.1	2.43
Taurean Prince	48	49	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	7	-8	15.3	14.1	1.20	15.4	18.3	-2.89
Giannis Antetokounmpo	66	66	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.24	-6	12	-18	15.2	13.5	1.63	16.0	18.6	-2.59
Pat Connaughton	4	4	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.02	-2	8	-10	17.0	14.6	2.40	10.7	17.0	-6.28
Ryan Rollins	40	41	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.09	-9	15	-24	15.8	13.8	2.05	15.1	18.1	-2.91

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Carter	19	19	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.07	-3	-3	0	18.0	16.4	1.56	13.7	15.0	-1.29
Keegan Murray	62	63	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.30	8	-14	22	15.7	18.9	-3.17	15.7	12.5	3.18
Markelle Fultz	16	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-2	-2	19.4	16.2	3.24	13.6	14.9	-1.38
Jonas Valanciunas	52	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.23	4	-10	14	15.7	18.1	-2.41	15.4	13.7	1.70
Keon Ellis	71	69	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.08	-6	0	-6	16.8	16.6	0.18	14.7	14.6	0.15
Zach LaVine	72	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-9	12	15.6	21.0	-5.42	15.1	13.1	1.98
Trey Lyles	40	38	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	4	-14	18.1	15.7	2.41	13.7	15.4	-1.70
DeMar DeRozan	74	72	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.31	-10	4	-14	17.2	15.1	2.05	14.6	15.1	-0.51
Jake LaRavia	54	52	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	6	-18	17.7	15.4	2.24	13.8	15.9	-2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.86,0.77,0.68,0.65,0.52,0.53,0.75,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.41,0.28,0.62,0.37,0.22,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 116, HOU 110	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.71,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.09,0.04,0	92.1%
BOS 92, MIN 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.16,0	90.9%
PHI 91, IND 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.75,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.22,0.03,0.01,0	90.9%