NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	102		Excitement	6.9 [474]		MVP	Fred VanVleet (HOU): +51.2%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	4.6 [456]		LVP	Alperen Sengun (HOU): -23.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0.51	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51	0.36	0.18	0.02	17	97%	0.55	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Jabari Smith Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	6	69%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Amen Thompson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	14	58%	0.09	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Steven Adams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Jalen Green	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.10	0.03	-0.04	13	23%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dillon Brooks	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	11	46%	-0.00	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tari Eason	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Alperen Sengun	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.17	-0.06	-0.01	15	24%	-0.17	2	-0.07	4	0%	-0.07

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.19	0.06	-0.00	13	86%	0.32	4	-0.07	9	89%	0.04
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.00	10	80%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.05	13	55%	0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	0.02	10	60%	0.05	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.17	-0.04	-0.00	11	33%	-0.06	6	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.5	26.5	18.5	27.4	0.2	30.3	128.8
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +31.1%

MIA -16.2%

HOU +29.9%

HOU +3.1%

HOU +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	14.5	14.4	106.2	103.2	113.0
season	14.8	15.0		113.9	111.5
opponent	14.6	14.3		112.2	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.6	16.8	13.3	17.1	15.6
MIA	13.2	15.1	14.3	15.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amen Thompson	70	71	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.21	20	-16	36	15.1	17.0	-1.94	14.6	14.4	0.15
Jabari Smith Jr.	41	41	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	-4	12	16.4	15.0	1.38	15.6	13.7	1.95
Steven Adams	39	40	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	-3	10	15.3	15.8	-0.49	15.3	13.9	1.38
Tari Eason	54	54	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.20	7	-3	10	15.6	15.6	0.05	15.0	13.9	1.05
Fred VanVleet	72	70	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.31	2	2	0	15.7	15.5	0.11	14.8	13.9	0.88
Dillon Brooks	71	69	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.32	-8	12	-20	15.3	16.6	-1.26	13.8	16.3	-2.51
Jalen Green	66	65	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.25	-7	11	-18	15.5	15.9	-0.40	13.8	16.1	-2.35
Alperen Sengun	67	65	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.18	-9	13	-22	16.3	14.1	2.18	14.1	15.4	-1.23

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Wiggins	60	60	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-8	12	14.2	15.1	-0.98	15.7	15.4	0.33
Kel'el Ware	71	72	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.25	7	-11	18	14.2	15.4	-1.19	15.5	16.0	-0.56
Kevin Love	11	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	0	-4	15.3	14.4	0.84	17.2	15.4	1.76
Tyler Herro	76	78	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.32	6	-10	16	14.4	15.0	-0.59	15.5	16.1	-0.60
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	31	30	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	4	-12	14.7	14.4	0.27	14.4	16.2	-1.73
Alec Burks	8	7	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	2	-8	14.6	14.5	0.11	14.4	15.7	-1.29
Haywood Highsmith	46	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.21	-2	-2	0	15.2	13.9	1.30	15.7	15.6	0.15
Davion Mitchell	65	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-8	12	14.4	14.8	-0.45	16.1	14.5	1.64
Duncan Robinson	33	34	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	7	-18	15.5	14.0	1.47	15.7	15.6	0.08
Bam Adebayo	74	74	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.41	-10	6	-16	14.3	15.3	-0.97	15.6	15.6	-0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 97, NOH 88	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.26,0.15,0.07,0.15,0.07,0,0,0	93.1%
LAC 108, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.05,0.02,0,0,0	92.3%
PHX 116, GSW 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.57,0.43,0.33,0.1,0.01,0.03,0.07,0,0,0,0,0	92.3%