NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	116		Excitement	9.6 [119]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +44.8%
Miami Heat	113		Comeback	4.9 [393]		LVP	Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA): -13.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Duren	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.11	0.22	0.00	9	68%	0.33	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Cade Cunningham	0.32	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.29,-0.37,0.32	-0.05	0.35	-0.01	25	50%	0.52	5	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.08,0.08	0.11	-0.02	0.00	11	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ausar Thompson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.05	0.01	10	70%	0.16	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Holland II	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	78%	0.07	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.05	0.01	9	65%	0.13	1	-0.14	2	50%	-0.03
Dennis Schroder	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Simone Fontecchio	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.01	8	53%	0.04	1	-0.10	3	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.24,0.45	0.45	0.12	0.32	-0.01	20	63%	0.47	2	-0.02	6	100%	0.15
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.07	-0.00	6	80%	0.17	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.03
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.11	0.11	0.11	-0.06	-0.06	24	58%	0.17	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.01	10	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.02	4	44%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.02	10	70%	0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	-0.00	10	32%	-0.03	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.8	31.0	15.4	24.4	2.6	36.2	141.5
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +58.7%

MIA -15.8%

DET +42.1%

MIA -34.8%

MIA -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	13.5	15.5	14.4	116.0	114.1	113.1
season	14.1	15.0		113.7	111.5
opponent	14.6	14.5		112.2	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.7	12.9	13.3	13.0	13.5
MIA	14.7	13.8	17.2	16.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Duren	61	62	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.32	17	-14	31	12.5	15.0	-2.49	15.9	14.8	1.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	42	41	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.59	1	2	-1	13.6	13.4	0.16	15.1	15.7	-0.56
Tobias Harris	73	71	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.64	-4	7	-11	13.5	13.4	0.15	15.5	15.5	-0.09
Malik Beasley	60	60	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.25	7	-4	11	13.7	13.1	0.63	15.5	15.4	0.11
Cade Cunningham	72	74	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.49	-3	6	-9	14.1	12.0	2.11	15.6	15.1	0.53
Ronald Holland II	29	28	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.10	11	-8	19	11.5	14.3	-2.76	16.0	15.3	0.78
Ausar Thompson	60	60	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.23	-1	4	-5	13.0	14.2	-1.16	15.9	14.9	0.99
Simone Fontecchio	26	26	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.21	2	1	1	13.9	13.3	0.60	14.4	15.8	-1.43
Dennis Schroder	38	36	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.25	-1	4	-5	13.7	13.3	0.37	15.2	15.6	-0.40
Isaiah Stewart	39	37	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.09	-14	17	-31	15.0	12.5	2.49	14.8	15.9	-1.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alec Burks	27	27	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.15	-4	1	-5	15.9	15.3	0.57	14.1	13.3	0.81
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	58	58	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.21	6	-9	15	16.0	14.8	1.23	13.4	13.6	-0.24
Pelle Larsson	10	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	4	-11	15.9	15.4	0.47	9.8	13.9	-4.09
Duncan Robinson	63	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	1	-5	16.1	14.4	1.62	12.7	14.9	-2.25
Haywood Highsmith	51	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-1	-1	14.2	16.9	-2.68	14.0	12.9	1.19
Tyler Herro	77	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.52	5	-8	13	15.5	15.5	-0.03	13.7	12.9	0.80
Bam Adebayo	76	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.37	-2	-1	-1	14.9	17.2	-2.27	13.4	13.6	-0.14
Davion Mitchell	65	66	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.37	-11	8	-19	15.5	15.4	0.14	13.9	12.7	1.22
Kel'el Ware	69	69	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.75	1	-4	5	15.6	15.2	0.39	13.4	13.5	-0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.76,0.54,0.31,0.69,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 95, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.67,0.64,0.46,0.45,0.58,0	91.7%
SAS 90, MIA 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.73,0	91.0%
DAL 90, LAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.84,0	90.9%