NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	7.9 [241]		MVP	Dorell Wright (MIA): +18.6%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	6.4 [408]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -61.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.17	-0.01	0.17	-0.02	12	56%	0.30	4	-0.12	8	87%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.14,0.14	0.15	-0.02	-0.00	19	75%	0.37	3	-0.23	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.02	-0.01	0.08	0.05	9	55%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	50%	0.02
Jacque Vaughn	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.11,-0.11	0.02	-0.12	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.11	-0.03	6	64%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.01	0.01	17	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.02	0.03	10	70%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	6	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.07,-0.01,-0.61	-0.61	-0.05	-0.57	-0.00	23	47%	-0.17	4	-0.45	12	58%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.4	34.4	20.4	27.3	2.8	33.4	147.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.7%

SAS +11.1%

MIA -6.0%

MIA -0.2%

SAS +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	15.8	15.4	102.3	98.9	105.7
season	16.5	16.0		104.7	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.3		108.3	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.4	19.3	15.8	16.1	16.5
MIA	14.0	16.9	13.6	19.9	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	63	65	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.51	7	-6	13	16.3	17.2	-0.95	16.7	13.5	3.22
Bruce Bowen	61	60	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.58	4	-3	7	16.3	17.1	-0.85	16.3	15.0	1.27
Tim Duncan	71	70	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.54	4	-3	7	16.9	15.1	1.74	16.6	13.3	3.27
Manu Ginobili	67	71	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.44	4	-3	7	16.8	15.6	1.25	15.9	15.8	0.07
Fabricio Oberto	37	39	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.59	-2	3	-5	14.9	17.7	-2.77	15.1	16.4	-1.31
Michael Finley	46	45	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.08	7	-6	13	16.9	16.1	0.73	15.5	16.2	-0.76
Robert Horry	30	31	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.12	7	-6	13	16.6	16.5	0.17	16.9	15.3	1.66
Jacque Vaughn	25	25	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.04	-6	7	-13	17.2	16.3	0.95	13.5	16.7	-3.22
Ime Udoka	25	28	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.03	-10	11	-21	16.7	16.5	0.22	14.7	16.3	-1.59
Brent Barry	15	16	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.04	-10	11	-21	17.1	16.4	0.66	13.7	16.3	-2.62

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	13	11	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.03	0	-1	1	17.8	15.5	2.34	17.5	16.4	1.06
Earl Barron	18	17	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.07	-3	2	-5	16.6	15.7	0.89	18.9	15.9	3.00
Alexander Johnson	17	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.06	-3	2	-5	17.2	15.5	1.71	16.5	16.5	-0.07
Ricky Davis	44	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-2	3	15.4	16.3	-0.85	18.2	15.1	3.09
Mark Blount	72	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.55	5	-6	11	15.7	16.6	-0.89	16.4	17.2	-0.88
Dwyane Wade	77	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.54	4	-5	9	15.6	17.0	-1.35	16.7	15.5	1.15
Dorell Wright	68	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.12	-12	11	-23	16.7	13.1	3.58	16.3	17.2	-0.94
Udonis Haslem	71	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.52	1	-2	3	15.6	16.7	-1.06	15.7	20.1	-4.38
Jason Williams	70	71	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.56	2	-3	5	15.0	18.8	-3.80	15.9	19.1	-3.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 90, LAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.84,0	93.1%
MIN 97, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.84,0	92.4%
IND 94, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.58,0	92.0%