NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	110		Excitement	8.1 [293]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +33.2%
Denver Nuggets	116		Comeback	6.4 [461]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -18.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.17	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.03	0.06	-0.08	32	51%	0.24	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Jake LaRavia	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09	0.10	-0.01	0.00	10	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zach LaVine	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	16	56%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.02
Doug McDermott	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.06	-0.09	0.01	14	59%	0.06	2	-0.10	4	75%	-0.02
Keon Ellis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.02	9	55%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Markelle Fultz	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.18	0.18	0.03	10	69%	0.33	0	0.00	15	93%	0.10
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.21,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.12	-0.00	20	61%	0.30	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.11	0.00	7	62%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Christian Braun	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	10	68%	0.13	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Pickett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.00	13	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	4	20%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.24,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19	-0.19	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	18	52%	0.05	7	-0.23	6	67%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	1.8	30.9	14.5	30.2	1.8	31.2	137.7
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +19.7%

DEN +20.5%

DEN +10.5%

SAC -6.3%

DEN +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.9	13.1	14.4	112.2	114.9	113.1
season	14.3	14.2		115.1	117.1
opponent	14.5	14.6		114.6	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.8	16.7	16.2	16.9	15.9
DEN	14.4	11.6	13.8	12.6	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Markelle Fultz	22	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-5	4	14.4	16.3	-1.91	13.1	13.1	-0.01
Doug McDermott	11	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	-2	-2	16.9	15.8	1.15	13.3	13.1	0.22
Keon Ellis	78	81	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-10	14	15.9	15.6	0.30	13.3	12.3	0.93
Trey Lyles	40	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-3	0	15.5	16.1	-0.57	13.0	13.2	-0.21
Jake LaRavia	49	48	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.23	-7	1	-8	15.9	15.9	-0.02	13.2	13.0	0.17
Keegan Murray	58	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-2	-2	16.0	15.7	0.28	13.0	13.2	-0.22
Jonas Valanciunas	63	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	-3	0	16.0	15.6	0.40	13.0	13.3	-0.29
DeMar DeRozan	86	86	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.23	-8	2	-10	16.2	14.0	2.15	13.3	11.9	1.37
Zach LaVine	83	88	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	-2	-2	15.8	16.4	-0.60	13.0	13.8	-0.77

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	77	76	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.25	21	-15	36	13.2	12.9	0.24	17.0	12.1	4.90
Michael Porter Jr.	78	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.57	1	5	-4	13.2	12.7	0.52	15.7	16.6	-0.90
Russell Westbrook	74	72	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.38	6	0	6	13.4	12.4	0.94	16.4	14.5	1.94
Christian Braun	80	78	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.20	9	-3	12	13.4	12.0	1.33	15.7	16.8	-1.15
Zeke Nnaji	39	40	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.00	9	-3	12	12.9	13.2	-0.29	15.9	15.9	0.02
Nikola Jokic	82	79	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.29	-7	13	-20	13.2	12.8	0.38	15.2	18.8	-3.60
Peyton Watson	35	35	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	6	-6	12.3	13.5	-1.29	16.6	15.5	1.06
Jalen Pickett	40	37	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.03	-9	15	-24	12.5	13.5	-0.99	14.4	16.8	-2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.32,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.19,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.19,0.3,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.61,0.89,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 90, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.41,0.39,0.62,0.84,0.84,0.98,1	93.0%
BOS 106, NOH 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.31,0.23,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.95,0.96,1	92.5%
DET 81, ORL 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.66,0.53,0.79,0.85,0.99,1	92.3%