NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	123		Excitement	7.4 [414]		MVP	Donovan Mitchell (CLE): +51.4%
Boston Celtics	116		Comeback	15.3 [91]		LVP	Ty Jerome (CLE): -7.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donovan Mitchell	0.51	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.51,0.51	0.22	0.29	-0.01	26	65%	0.55	2	-0.03	11	91%	0.05
Evan Mobley	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.04	0.14	-0.04	12	61%	0.25	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Jarrett Allen	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	4	100%	0.11	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
De'Andre Hunter	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	6	86%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Merrill	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaac Okoro	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Wade	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Garland	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	23	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ty Jerome	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	10	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.17	0.08	-0.04	24	64%	0.37	3	-0.09	10	70%	-0.02
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.23	0.23	0.15	0.01	-0.06	37	58%	0.31	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.02	-0.01	12	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Peterson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.8	28.2	15.3	28.4	2.8	31.2	136.0
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +1.2%

CLE +9.2%

CLE +30.8%

CLE +9.6%

BOS -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	BOS	NBA	CLE	BOS	NBA
this game	13.7	16.9	14.4	130.9	123.4	113.0
season	13.7	15.3		120.5	118.3
opponent	14.6	14.9		109.2	110.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	11.7	11.6	14.5	18.2	13.7
BOS	16.0	16.1	18.3	17.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Jerome	39	38	0.87	-0.37	1.24	-0.13	34	-27	61	13.8	13.6	0.23	19.7	15.1	4.59
Dean Wade	34	35	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.20	12	-5	17	15.7	12.6	3.17	17.9	16.3	1.58
Donovan Mitchell	70	69	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.49	0	7	-7	13.5	14.2	-0.67	17.0	16.6	0.39
De'Andre Hunter	54	54	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.16	21	-14	35	13.4	14.2	-0.85	17.4	16.2	1.18
Sam Merrill	32	33	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.21	22	-15	37	12.9	14.1	-1.22	19.2	15.7	3.52
Evan Mobley	61	61	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.35	2	5	-3	12.8	15.4	-2.64	16.5	17.6	-1.10
Isaac Okoro	23	25	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	4	-1	14.5	13.5	1.01	17.3	16.8	0.48
Max Strus	46	43	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.36	-19	26	-45	13.9	13.5	0.43	14.9	18.6	-3.76
Darius Garland	62	63	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	0.24	-17	24	-41	13.9	13.4	0.42	15.7	19.5	-3.82
Jarrett Allen	49	49	-0.51	1.01	-1.52	0.17	-23	30	-53	13.8	13.6	0.13	15.6	18.4	-2.83

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Peterson	3	2	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-7	7	21.7	16.8	4.90	10.0	13.8	-3.79
Sam Hauser	73	72	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.58	18	-25	43	16.4	18.9	-2.55	14.7	10.4	4.31
Torrey Craig	6	7	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.15	-8	1	-9	19.8	16.7	3.11	9.4	14.1	-4.63
Jayson Tatum	79	81	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.31	5	-12	17	16.4	19.5	-3.02	13.7	14.1	-0.42
Jaylen Brown	66	68	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.46	10	-17	27	16.5	17.8	-1.28	14.2	12.5	1.73
Al Horford	74	76	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-11	15	16.2	19.7	-3.59	13.8	13.3	0.47
Derrick White	81	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.42	-2	-5	3	16.7	18.5	-1.87	13.9	12.8	1.01
Luke Kornet	37	34	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.21	-26	19	-45	19.3	15.4	3.87	13.3	13.9	-0.66
Payton Pritchard	51	49	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	0.32	-36	29	-65	18.2	15.4	2.73	12.3	15.2	-2.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.66,0.65,0.73,0.82,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.65,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.76,0.82,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.88,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.72,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.37,0.31,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.45,0.24,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 107, CLE 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.16,0	90.4%
OKC 111, MIN 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.68,0.63,0.54,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.08,0	89.6%
ATL 107, CLE 101	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.74,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.37,0.21,0.11,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.16,0	89.4%