NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	8.7 [154]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +90.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers	106		Comeback	7.6 [34]		LVP	Courtney Lee (ORL): -7.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.91	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.28,0.28,0.91	0.11	0.76	-0.03	13	79%	0.97	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,0,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.21,0.21	0.01	0.20	0.00	11	54%	0.29	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.09
Dwight Howard	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.14	0.01	0.05	20	71%	0.22	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	83%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	60%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.00	10	52%	0.04	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	10	59%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Courtney Lee	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.71	0.71	0.30	0.40	-0.01	30	70%	0.80	2	-0.09	10	60%	-0.06
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.08	0.01	8	78%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	13	42%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	19	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	-0.00	11	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.2	3.5	34.2	20.8	29.1	3.6	40.9	166.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +67.5%

ORL +4.8%

CLE -5.5%

CLE -16.5%

CLE -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	14.9	17.4	15.5	121.6	117.8	106.4
season	15.3	16.9		107.3	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.8		101.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.5	14.3	15.9	14.9	14.9
CLE	14.8	19.3	18.4	17.7	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	19	19	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.69	2	-1	3	13.7	15.2	-1.47	18.3	17.2	1.04
Mickael Pietrus	55	57	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.52	4	-3	7	14.2	16.0	-1.73	17.2	17.8	-0.54
Rashard Lewis	76	77	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.52	1	0	1	14.9	14.9	-0.04	17.8	15.4	2.41
Hedo Turkoglu	74	77	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.44	0	1	-1	15.4	12.4	2.92	17.6	16.7	0.88
Courtney Lee	52	51	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.26	-4	5	-9	14.7	15.2	-0.47	17.0	18.1	-1.12
Anthony Johnson	26	27	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.06	3	-2	5	15.5	14.6	0.82	17.1	17.6	-0.48
Rafer Alston	57	58	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	1	-1	14.8	15.0	-0.18	18.1	16.3	1.71
Tony Battie	12	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	1	-1	14.9	14.9	0.04	15.4	17.8	-2.41
Dwight Howard	69	71	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.22	-1	2	-3	15.2	13.7	1.47	17.2	18.3	-1.04

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	58	58	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.08	12	-13	25	17.2	17.9	-0.72	15.3	14.2	1.09
Anderson Varejao	69	68	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.10	8	-9	17	17.4	17.5	-0.10	14.8	15.1	-0.28
Daniel Gibson	8	6	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	2	-5	16.5	17.5	-1.04	13.3	15.0	-1.67
LeBron James	77	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.50	7	-8	15	17.1	19.7	-2.63	14.7	15.9	-1.19
Joe Smith	29	29	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	7	-15	17.4	17.4	0.01	14.6	15.0	-0.40
Mo Williams	75	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.48	0	-1	1	18.0	14.5	3.49	15.5	11.2	4.38
Delonte West	88	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.49	0	-1	1	17.2	27.0	-9.77	15.0	10.5	4.49
Wally Szczerbiak	25	24	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.33	-7	6	-13	18.1	17.2	0.88	14.0	15.2	-1.16
Ben Wallace	21	18	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.23	-14	13	-27	18.0	17.3	0.79	13.5	15.2	-1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 94, IND 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.35,0.32,0.46,0.15,0.27,0	92.8%
SAS 105, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.42,0.53,0.29,0.17,0.23,0.29,0.47,0.05,0	92.3%
MIA 96, CHA 95	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.59,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.52,0.16,0.09,0	91.9%