NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	8.6 [138]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +33.6%
Charlotte Bobcats	95		Comeback	10.0 [60]		LVP	Corey Maggette (CHA): -10.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.34	0.13	0.23	0.02	13	62%	0.36	1	-0.02	14	64%	-0.10
LeBron James	0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.31,0.31	0.16	0.17	0.01	23	64%	0.35	2	-0.03	9	100%	0.06
Dwyane Wade	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.11,-0.11,0.26	-0.09	0.34	-0.01	13	38%	0.44	3	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	12	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.05	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.03
Norris Cole	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	8	29%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,0.2	0.20	-0.01	0.21	0.00	19	55%	0.37	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Byron Mullens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	-0.00	4	75%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	9	70%	0.15	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.09	0.01	11	77%	0.11	5	-0.16	4	75%	-0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	14	57%	0.09	6	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ White	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	8	40%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.02,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	10	25%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.6	32.1	13.6	24.4	2.6	35.2	135.9
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.6%

MIA +18.3%

CHA -29.7%

MIA +31.8%

MIA +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	14.8	15.3	15.6	100.0	100.0	102.8
season	15.5	16.3		105.6	94.1
opponent	15.0	15.8		108.9	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	17.1	12.8	13.6	14.8
CHA	13.2	16.4	14.8	17.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	67	66	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.60	7	-6	13	14.4	15.9	-1.56	13.9	18.6	-4.66
LeBron James	80	79	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.57	5	-4	9	14.7	15.4	-0.71	14.3	20.4	-6.08
Chris Bosh	79	77	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	-1	3	14.6	16.0	-1.41	15.9	12.7	3.20
James Jones	26	26	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	-13	27	12.8	15.6	-2.74	14.8	15.5	-0.65
Dwyane Wade	61	61	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.42	-3	4	-7	15.0	14.5	0.47	16.2	13.8	2.42
Udonis Haslem	57	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.09	7	-6	13	14.3	15.6	-1.30	16.6	13.3	3.33
Juwan Howard	4	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	2	-3	18.0	14.7	3.29	10.6	15.6	-4.98
Norris Cole	28	29	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	4	-7	16.1	14.3	1.83	18.6	13.9	4.66
Shane Battier	38	38	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.23	-11	12	-23	15.9	14.1	1.78	15.8	15.0	0.83
Joel Anthony	40	37	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.04	-12	13	-25	15.9	14.1	1.81	13.2	16.7	-3.44

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Brown	25	24	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.01	10	-11	21	17.6	14.5	3.15	15.4	14.7	0.71
Bismack Biyombo	22	22	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.06	6	-7	13	18.3	14.4	3.85	16.6	14.3	2.27
Byron Mullens	16	16	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.10	-1	0	-1	20.2	14.3	5.93	14.2	15.0	-0.71
Matt Carroll	9	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.05	-2	1	-3	17.6	15.1	2.47	17.1	14.6	2.52
Kemba Walker	38	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.10	-6	5	-11	17.6	13.8	3.77	14.4	15.1	-0.66
Gerald Henderson	86	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.52	1	-2	3	15.1	17.6	-2.47	14.6	17.1	-2.52
Corey Maggette	59	61	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.48	-3	2	-5	14.0	17.5	-3.56	15.4	13.8	1.64
Boris Diaw	79	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.57	0	-1	1	14.3	20.2	-5.93	15.0	14.2	0.71
D.J. Augustin	68	69	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.55	-3	2	-5	14.4	17.7	-3.34	14.3	16.1	-1.76
DJ White	73	74	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.53	-7	6	-13	14.4	18.3	-3.85	14.3	16.6	-2.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.59,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.52,0.16,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 94, IND 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.35,0.32,0.46,0.15,0.27,0	93.1%
ORL 107, CLE 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.16,0	91.9%
PHX 98, GSW 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.84,0.82,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.64,0.42,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.13,0	91.8%