NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	112		Excitement	6.7 [516]		MVP	Gary Trent Jr. (MIL): +23.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	121		Comeback	1.8 [448]		LVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): -16.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15	0.17	0.02	0.04	16	82%	0.25	5	-0.11	7	71%	-0.00
Jamal Murray	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.07	0.00	20	50%	0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	8	75%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	11	52%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	13	37%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	13	35%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-0.01	22	27%	-0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.13	0.10	0.00	8	94%	0.25	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	4	75%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	9	79%	0.20	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.02
Taurean Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.00	7	71%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.03	0.02	16	55%	0.06	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	23	52%	0.04	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.03
Jericho Sims	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	15	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.8	23.7	15.8	26.8	2.7	36.9	134.6
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +33.9%

MIL +12.4%

DEN -6.2%

MIL +8.7%

MIL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	13.1	13.6	14.4	103.7	113.1	113.0
season	14.2	14.4		117.1	114.2
opponent	14.3	14.5		112.2	114.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.8	11.5	13.6	15.0	13.1
MIL	12.9	14.8	13.6	13.3	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeke Nnaji	20	18	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.04	7	-16	23	11.7	13.5	-1.72	15.7	13.2	2.50
Julian Strawther	44	44	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.18	6	-15	21	12.9	13.3	-0.44	14.0	13.4	0.68
Russell Westbrook	57	57	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.23	7	-16	23	12.9	13.4	-0.46	13.4	13.9	-0.52
DeAndre Jordan	21	22	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-8	7	15.0	12.7	2.36	14.2	13.5	0.73
Nikola Jokic	85	85	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-4	-1	13.0	13.8	-0.81	13.5	14.2	-0.73
Christian Braun	72	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	3	-15	12.9	13.6	-0.69	13.7	13.5	0.22
Aaron Gordon	76	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.05	-14	5	-19	12.6	14.4	-1.83	13.4	14.1	-0.64
Jamal Murray	87	88	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.22	-13	4	-17	13.5	11.8	1.72	13.7	13.2	0.53
Michael Porter Jr.	78	78	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.14	-20	11	-31	13.9	11.3	2.56	13.1	15.0	-1.91

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Kuzma	81	83	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.09	19	-10	29	13.8	13.1	0.70	13.5	11.8	1.70
Giannis Antetokounmpo	75	74	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	1	7	13.5	14.0	-0.55	12.8	13.8	-0.99
Damian Lillard	79	81	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	0	9	13.5	14.1	-0.58	12.8	14.3	-1.48
Brook Lopez	85	86	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	3	3	13.5	14.2	-0.73	12.6	15.3	-2.67
Taurean Prince	67	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-1	11	13.6	13.6	-0.01	12.8	13.7	-0.94
Gary Trent Jr.	54	55	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.24	-2	11	-13	13.9	13.4	0.46	13.3	12.9	0.40
Jericho Sims	22	22	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	6	-3	14.2	13.5	0.73	15.3	12.6	2.67
Kevin Porter Jr.	28	27	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	9	-9	14.1	13.5	0.58	14.3	12.8	1.48
AJ Green	44	45	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.21	-8	17	-25	13.3	13.9	-0.52	13.2	13.1	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.96,0.93,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 75, PHI 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	94.3%
ORL 78, DET 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	93.9%
NYK 107, IND 121	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%