NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	8.1 [282]		MVP	Trey Murphy III (NOP): +14.1%
New Orleans Pelicans	109		Comeback	6.3 [321]		LVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAS): -24.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keldon Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	7	69%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Devin Vassell	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	16	53%	0.15	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Harrison Barnes	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.00	0.02	9	68%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Chris Paul	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	7	80%	0.10	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Jeremy Sochan	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.10	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Castle	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	4	40%	-0.02	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Sandro Mamukelashvili	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.05,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24	-0.20	-0.08	-0.04	21	33%	-0.02	6	-0.22	3	67%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.08	-0.05	21	52%	0.23	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Yves Missi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.07	-0.02	8	56%	0.11	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.04	0.07	-0.03	13	44%	0.08	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Zion Williamson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.06	0.09	-0.02	15	55%	0.16	6	-0.11	3	67%	-0.02
Karlo Matkovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Antonio Reeves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	14	43%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jose Alvarado	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	64%	0.05	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	6	35%	0.04	1	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.11	0.01	8	42%	-0.09	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	1.8	32.2	14.6	28.2	1.8	33.3	139.6
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +14.8%

NOP +6.4%

NOP +15.4%

NOP +13.1%

NOP +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NOP	NBA	SAS	NOP	NBA
this game	14.2	13.6	14.4	100.0	104.8	113.1
season	14.2	14.4		113.0	109.3
opponent	14.3	14.5		118.3	115.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.0	16.2	13.1	15.6	14.2
NOP	15.1	11.5	13.5	14.4	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bismack Biyombo	50	49	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.39	16	-22	38	13.1	15.2	-2.09	14.9	12.5	2.47
Sandro Mamukelashvili	25	28	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.13	-4	-2	-2	13.6	14.4	-0.73	13.2	13.8	-0.53
Julian Champagnie	31	31	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.20	-12	6	-18	15.2	13.8	1.43	12.9	13.9	-1.04
Devin Vassell	68	71	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.39	7	-13	20	14.0	14.5	-0.48	14.1	12.7	1.37
De'Aaron Fox	82	82	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-10	14	14.1	14.6	-0.47	13.6	13.8	-0.18
Harrison Barnes	66	64	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.28	1	-7	8	15.2	12.4	2.79	13.9	13.3	0.58
Chris Paul	72	71	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.34	0	-6	6	13.7	15.3	-1.61	14.1	12.6	1.51
Stephon Castle	26	27	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.04	-16	10	-26	15.3	13.8	1.44	12.8	13.9	-1.16
Jeremy Sochan	43	43	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.02	-17	11	-28	14.4	14.0	0.35	11.9	14.8	-2.91
Keldon Johnson	52	54	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.26	-9	3	-12	14.0	14.4	-0.47	13.4	13.8	-0.40

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Brown	62	60	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.09	20	-14	34	12.8	14.9	-2.13	14.2	14.2	-0.03
Zion Williamson	64	65	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.42	2	4	-2	13.7	13.5	0.14	14.2	14.3	-0.11
Jose Alvarado	45	43	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.01	14	-8	22	13.0	14.1	-1.04	13.9	14.4	-0.45
Karlo Matkovic	39	38	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	-6	18	13.1	14.0	-0.85	14.8	13.8	1.03
Jordan Hawkins	52	53	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	2	2	13.3	14.0	-0.69	13.9	14.5	-0.52
Trey Murphy III	78	77	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.31	-5	11	-16	13.8	13.0	0.79	13.8	15.4	-1.59
Yves Missi	60	59	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.41	-9	15	-24	14.2	12.9	1.30	14.4	13.9	0.50
CJ McCollum	62	62	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.32	-6	12	-18	14.0	13.0	1.02	14.4	13.9	0.48
Antonio Reeves	7	7	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.07	4	2	2	13.4	13.6	-0.22	16.0	14.1	1.94
Kelly Olynyk	51	51	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.14	-6	12	-18	14.5	12.8	1.64	14.1	14.2	-0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.44,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.25,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.18,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.53,0.57,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.79,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 76, MIA 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.96,1,1,1	91.1%
SAS 76, OKC 78	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.79,0.91,0.96,1	90.7%
MIL 94, TOR 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.3,0.38,0.53,0.57,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.61,0.62,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	90.5%