NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	94		Excitement	6.7 [525]		MVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): +25.1%
Toronto Raptors	100		Comeback	14.6 [123]		LVP	Kawhi Leonard (TOR): -6.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.16	0.05	0.12	0.01	12	55%	0.18	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.03
Ersan Ilyasova	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.01	7	65%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.04	9	40%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Connaughton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	10	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Khris Middleton	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.01	13	54%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.02	6	71%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	18	46%	-0.01	2	-0.04	10	50%	-0.07

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.16	0.10	0.01	6	117%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.10	0.00	3	100%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.04	0.02	10	77%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.07	-0.02	7	56%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	5	69%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	17	47%	0.05	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Danny Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.02	0.02	22	49%	0.08	6	-0.14	11	73%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.4	31.6	16.5	32.6	3.4	47.1	159.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +59.3%

MIL -9.0%

MIL -2.1%

MIL -0.9%

TOR +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.7	17.3	14.3	106.8	114.9	109.3
season	13.5	14.3		112.4	111.5
opponent	14.5	14.3		105.9	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.8	17.4	16.2	16.6	15.7
TOR	17.2	16.0	15.1	21.3	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Connaughton	19	20	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.00	3	-9	12	15.2	15.8	-0.64	16.1	17.6	-1.51
Ersan Ilyasova	40	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	0	-6	16.5	15.0	1.50	16.7	17.7	-1.04
George Hill	57	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.19	0	-6	6	15.5	16.0	-0.48	17.6	16.7	0.81
Giannis Antetokounmpo	76	71	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.42	3	-9	12	15.2	18.6	-3.39	17.4	16.6	0.78
Khris Middleton	74	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.37	-2	-4	2	15.7	15.2	0.53	17.7	15.1	2.66
Eric Bledsoe	55	54	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.16	-10	4	-14	16.1	15.0	1.10	16.9	17.8	-0.89
Malcolm Brogdon	58	58	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	1	-8	15.7	15.6	0.14	17.4	16.9	0.50
Brook Lopez	61	64	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	5	-16	15.5	16.0	-0.55	17.2	17.5	-0.29

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred VanVleet	58	59	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-6	18	18.0	15.9	2.10	16.3	14.4	1.81
Pascal Siakam	76	76	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.37	8	-2	10	17.1	18.5	-1.36	15.9	14.3	1.54
Kyle Lowry	75	75	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	6	-6	17.5	15.7	1.85	15.2	18.5	-3.38
Kawhi Leonard	76	77	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.12	7	-1	8	16.7	20.8	-4.07	15.8	14.9	0.86
Norman Powell	30	30	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.15	6	0	6	17.3	17.2	0.05	16.1	15.4	0.62
Serge Ibaka	46	44	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	3	0	17.7	16.8	0.87	16.2	15.1	1.05
Marc Gasol	46	50	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.18	1	5	-4	17.3	17.2	0.04	14.9	16.6	-1.67
Danny Green	28	29	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.03	-7	13	-20	16.2	17.7	-1.50	14.9	16.0	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.3,0.38,0.53,0.57,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.61,0.62,0.85,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 105, DAL 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.15,0.19,0.38,0.48,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.47,0.79,0.97,1,1	91.5%
DAL 102, MIL 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.28,0.46,0.38,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.78,0.65,0.54,0.53,0.85,0.97,0.98,1	91.1%
LAC 90, NOH 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.21,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.62,0.58,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.95,0.86,0.92,1	90.6%