NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	115		Excitement	8.2 [278]		MVP	Amen Thompson (HOU): +24.3%
Houston Rockets	121		Comeback	1.2 [847]		LVP	Alperen Sengun (HOU): -17.1%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Naz Reid	0.16	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	0.00	16	65%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.04	0.01	11	73%	0.17	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luka Garza	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jaylen Clark	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rob Dillingham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Shannon Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.04	2	56%	-0.00	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Jaden McDaniels	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09	0.05	-0.10	0.04	15	57%	0.00	2	-0.09	7	86%	0.02
Anthony Edwards	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	0.02	-0.09	0.02	32	50%	0.03	3	-0.12	10	70%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amen Thompson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.15	0.13	0.03	9	81%	0.24	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.01	6	59%	0.13	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jalen Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.02	0.05	24	61%	0.19	4	-0.10	9	67%	-0.07
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	5	73%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Steven Adams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	10	55%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	0.00	9	75%	0.13	5	-0.18	2	50%	-0.02
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-0.03	-0.02	21	46%	0.06	8	-0.23	10	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.5	26.2	14.8	31.9	3.7	42.2	152.5
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +43.6%

MIN -1.0%

HOU +29.1%

MIN -26.3%

HOU +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	HOU	NBA	MIN	HOU	NBA
this game	12.8	15.0	14.4	110.6	117.5	113.1
season	14.7	14.8		114.8	113.9
opponent	14.3	14.7		109.7	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.1	10.7	12.9	14.9	12.8
HOU	12.6	17.7	14.3	15.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Shannon Jr.	41	40	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.16	10	-16	26	12.6	13.0	-0.37	15.7	14.6	1.14
Rob Dillingham	20	19	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-5	4	11.1	13.2	-2.15	13.7	15.3	-1.61
Luka Garza	27	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-7	8	12.1	13.1	-0.98	12.6	15.8	-3.19
Jaden McDaniels	89	88	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-9	12	12.8	13.2	-0.42	15.6	11.5	4.06
Mike Conley	50	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.24	-1	-5	4	13.6	12.1	1.47	15.1	14.9	0.27
Jaylen Clark	46	45	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.10	-8	2	-10	12.8	12.8	-0.02	14.5	15.4	-0.91
Anthony Edwards	89	87	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	5	-16	12.6	14.1	-1.44	14.1	20.0	-5.92
Naz Reid	68	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.25	-10	4	-14	13.0	12.5	0.56	15.8	13.3	2.54
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	90	88	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.28	-13	7	-20	13.2	10.2	3.03	15.5	11.9	3.59

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Green	88	87	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.18	18	-12	30	14.3	19.3	-4.99	12.5	14.7	-2.23
Jabari Smith Jr.	82	82	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.34	12	-6	18	14.7	16.2	-1.56	12.8	12.8	0.02
Alperen Sengun	75	75	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-4	14	15.8	13.0	2.80	13.2	11.8	1.45
Amen Thompson	82	85	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	1	4	15.5	13.2	2.21	13.5	9.9	3.60
Dillon Brooks	61	62	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.22	2	4	-2	16.0	13.5	2.45	13.7	11.6	2.04
Tari Eason	54	59	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	1	4	15.2	14.7	0.51	12.9	12.8	0.10
Jae'Sean Tate	19	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.07	-5	11	-16	12.8	15.5	-2.65	10.1	13.4	-3.34
Aaron Holiday	41	39	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.08	-7	13	-20	14.9	15.1	-0.20	12.2	13.2	-1.01
Steven Adams	13	12	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	16	-26	12.5	15.4	-2.82	10.2	13.2	-3.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.85,0.85,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 95, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.91,0.98,1	93.8%
SAS 91, MEM 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.53,0.62,0.9,0.93,1,1	93.4%
SAS 99, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.96,1	92.7%