NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	6.2 [595]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +27.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	99		Comeback	1.1 [813]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -18.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.09	-0.01	14	53%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Matt Bonner	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.00	0.00	4	90%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	7	62%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	17	61%	0.09	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Danny Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	10	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	12	31%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	13	43%	-0.04	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.23,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.16	-0.00	22	60%	0.29	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.03
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	55%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	6	57%	0.11	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Hamed Haddadi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.03	0.02	9	41%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	9	50%	0.06	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	60%	0.08	4	-0.12	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	3.5	32.3	18.7	28.9	2.5	44.3	154.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +43.7%

MEM +0.1%

MEM +18.1%

SAS -16.8%

MEM +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	16.8	16.1	15.5	103.4	113.8	105.7
season	15.5	15.5		109.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.7	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.0	15.6	20.4	16.7	16.8
MEM	18.4	15.7	15.6	14.7	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	37	37	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.18	8	-16	24	16.2	17.3	-1.03	16.2	16.0	0.16
Danny Green	3	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-7	6	4.0	17.3	-13.29	5.0	16.2	-11.20
Gary Neal	43	42	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.20	6	-14	20	15.5	18.2	-2.69	16.0	16.1	-0.04
Tiago Splitter	25	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.19	4	-12	16	15.2	17.5	-2.35	16.5	15.9	0.61
Richard Jefferson	19	20	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.11	-13	5	-18	17.5	16.7	0.81	15.7	16.2	-0.41
George Hill	68	68	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-8	8	17.6	14.1	3.55	16.6	14.3	2.24
Tony Parker	71	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	2	-12	17.2	15.4	1.84	15.9	16.6	-0.72
Manu Ginobili	64	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-1	-6	16.1	18.7	-2.57	15.3	18.1	-2.78
Tim Duncan	65	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	4	-16	17.4	15.3	2.02	16.2	15.8	0.38
Antonio McDyess	45	45	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	7	-22	18.6	15.0	3.65	16.6	15.5	1.01

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Randolph	73	72	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.27	14	-6	20	16.2	15.4	0.76	17.3	14.6	2.78
Marc Gasol	74	75	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	-2	12	16.5	13.7	2.79	17.0	16.1	0.90
Mike Conley	44	47	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.27	8	0	8	14.8	17.4	-2.62	17.2	16.4	0.75
O.J. Mayo	29	33	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.25	7	1	6	16.4	15.9	0.47	17.0	16.7	0.30
Sam Young	41	40	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.00	9	-1	10	15.7	16.4	-0.68	17.1	16.6	0.57
Shane Battier	41	44	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.22	0	8	-8	17.3	15.0	2.36	16.1	17.6	-1.55
Tony Allen	63	60	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	8	-8	15.3	18.0	-2.61	16.9	16.8	0.08
Greivis Vasquez	43	41	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	8	-8	17.4	14.8	2.62	16.4	17.2	-0.75
Hamed Haddadi	1	1	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.02	-3	11	-14	0.0	16.3	-16.26	2.0	17.0	-15.01
Darrell Arthur	26	27	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	13	-18	15.2	16.5	-1.31	16.2	17.1	-0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.53,0.62,0.9,0.93,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 77, ATL 79	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.65,0.39,0.62,0.9,0.97,0.96,1	93.2%
ATL 63, CLE 73	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.95,0.99,1	92.4%
DET 93, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.75,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.65,0.54,0.61,0.85,0.93,0.96,1	92.2%