NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	115		Excitement	6.6 [335]		MVP	Miles Bridges (CHA): +24.1%
Denver Nuggets	129		Comeback	1.4 [790]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (DEN): -10.9%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Miles Bridges	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.25	0.07	0.07	23	68%	0.24	0	0.00	7	100%	0.02
Damion Baugh	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	7	100%	0.19	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Green	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.00	13	73%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Moussa Diabate	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	10	41%	0.02	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Seth Curry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	6	58%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Smith Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	16	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	11	39%	-0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Moore Jr.	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tidjane Salaun	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	6	21%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.27	0.02	0.10	18	85%	0.22	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.04	-0.02	13	64%	0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	0.01	22	63%	0.19	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	10	73%	0.17	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	9	48%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	11	25%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	10	38%	0.03	5	-0.14	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.7	23.3	14.8	25.2	2.3	27.3	118.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.2	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +37.1%

DEN +2.7%

DEN +11.1%

CHA -5.4%

DEN +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	DEN	NBA	CHA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	14.0	14.4	112.7	126.5	112.6
season	14.9	13.9		107.5	119.1
opponent	14.5	14.3		113.4	112.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.7	12.9	17.1	12.2	14.3
DEN	12.6	13.8	15.6	14.0	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	36	36	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.24	8	-22	30	14.6	14.1	0.42	14.0	13.9	0.03
Josh Green	57	56	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-15	16	13.6	15.1	-1.48	15.0	12.6	2.41
Jusuf Nurkic	39	40	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-18	22	15.0	13.8	1.16	14.6	13.5	1.07
Miles Bridges	71	71	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-15	16	14.2	14.5	-0.24	14.1	13.7	0.39
Tidjane Salaun	51	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.03	-6	-8	2	15.4	13.1	2.29	12.8	15.1	-2.29
Seth Curry	28	28	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-7	0	15.4	13.9	1.53	13.5	14.1	-0.57
Wendell Moore Jr.	29	29	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.06	-16	2	-18	14.9	14.0	0.90	12.7	14.5	-1.81
Moussa Diabate	63	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.11	-18	4	-22	13.8	15.0	-1.16	13.5	14.6	-1.07
Nick Smith Jr.	70	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.01	-15	1	-16	13.3	16.3	-3.00	14.5	12.7	1.75
Damion Baugh	66	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.15	-22	8	-30	14.1	14.6	-0.42	13.9	14.0	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	68	68	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.11	23	-9	32	14.1	13.6	0.50	14.1	14.7	-0.59
Russell Westbrook	56	56	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-3	20	12.2	16.0	-3.77	14.6	13.8	0.80
Julian Strawther	47	47	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.10	15	-1	16	13.0	14.8	-1.84	14.7	13.9	0.85
Zeke Nnaji	34	33	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	8	-2	12.7	14.6	-1.82	15.5	13.7	1.82
Nikola Jokic	78	78	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.11	14	0	14	14.0	13.7	0.37	14.1	14.8	-0.66
DeAndre Jordan	24	24	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	14	-14	13.7	14.0	-0.37	14.8	14.1	0.66
Aaron Gordon	68	69	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.05	8	6	2	14.6	12.7	1.82	13.7	15.5	-1.82
Jamal Murray	75	75	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	19	-24	14.5	12.3	2.20	13.9	15.3	-1.43
Michael Porter Jr.	60	60	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.03	-8	22	-30	15.4	11.9	3.52	14.3	14.3	-0.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.49,0.49,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.67,0.84,0.73,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.97,1,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 90, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
IND 119, MIL 128	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.63,0.69,0.77,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.79,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%
MIA 86, HOU 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.84,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,1,1,1	94.4%