NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	105		Excitement	5.6 [440]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +21.1%
Houston Rockets	98		Comeback	1.2 [395]		LVP	Jeff Green (HOU): -10.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.21	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.13	0.08	0.00	17	63%	0.22	1	-0.01	9	89%	0.02
Brandin Podziemski	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.03	17	50%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler III	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	15	53%	0.07	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Moses Moody	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	9	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gui Santos	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Buddy Hield	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinten Post	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Spencer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Draymond Green	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	8	72%	0.06	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Kevon Looney	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.04	0.08	20	58%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Nate Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	61%	0.06	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jock Landale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.03	0.05	9	72%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reed Sheppard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cam Whitmore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Jalen Green	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	10	39%	-0.01	4	-0.08	3	33%	-0.02
Alperen Sengun	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	10	42%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Amen Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.00	-0.04	7	29%	-0.04	5	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.10	0.02	10	45%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.3	29.8	14.7	26.7	2.0	35.2	137.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.2	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +32.7%

GSW +18.3%

HOU -17.9%

GSW +16.0%

GSW +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	15.0	13.7	14.4	104.0	98.0	112.6
season	14.3	14.8		112.2	113.0
opponent	14.2	14.5		108.7	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.6	13.9	16.2	17.7	15.0
HOU	15.1	11.9	14.4	13.6	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler III	73	71	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.23	10	-3	13	15.3	14.1	1.23	13.5	14.2	-0.68
Moses Moody	67	67	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.14	9	-2	11	16.4	12.1	4.37	14.3	12.4	1.89
Brandin Podziemski	84	81	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	7	-7	15.3	13.1	2.22	13.7	13.5	0.27
Kevon Looney	33	33	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.09	8	-1	9	12.9	15.9	-3.00	15.7	12.7	2.95
Stephen Curry	73	73	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.12	7	0	7	15.4	13.9	1.43	13.5	14.3	-0.83
Draymond Green	64	63	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	-1	9	15.4	14.2	1.22	12.9	15.0	-2.04
Buddy Hield	30	31	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	3	1	12.9	15.8	-2.88	13.9	13.6	0.36
Pat Spencer	31	32	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	8	-9	12.2	16.2	-3.95	11.8	14.6	-2.76
Quinten Post	15	13	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	10	-13	17.3	14.5	2.79	13.6	13.7	-0.09
Gui Santos	35	36	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.18	-7	14	-21	13.9	15.5	-1.56	14.2	13.4	0.87

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae'Sean Tate	54	54	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.24	10	-17	27	13.1	14.3	-1.18	15.4	14.4	1.00
Nate Williams	39	39	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.45	15	-22	37	12.5	14.4	-1.93	15.9	14.4	1.48
Jock Landale	30	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.46	15	-22	37	13.5	13.8	-0.22	17.5	13.8	3.64
Steven Adams	15	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-4	1	12.1	14.0	-1.91	9.9	15.8	-5.92
Reed Sheppard	11	11	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.03	-7	0	-7	14.6	13.6	1.06	15.4	14.9	0.45
Cam Whitmore	25	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	1	-9	13.5	13.7	-0.23	11.6	16.1	-4.41
Jalen Green	49	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	2	-11	13.2	14.1	-0.91	13.8	16.1	-2.22
Jeff Green	43	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.34	3	-10	13	14.5	13.1	1.40	14.7	15.2	-0.45
Dillon Brooks	45	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	5	-17	13.5	13.8	-0.33	14.4	15.4	-0.97
Alperen Sengun	55	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.15	-19	12	-31	14.2	13.0	1.17	14.8	15.1	-0.27
Amen Thompson	60	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	6	-19	14.4	12.6	1.78	15.6	14.0	1.66
Aaron Holiday	74	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.27	-7	0	-7	14.0	12.8	1.19	15.9	12.3	3.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.19,0.03,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 133, WAS 122	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.4%
GSW 102, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.26,0.07,0.09,0.17,0	93.4%
PHX 112, LAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.3%