NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	5.2 [795]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +32.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	115		Comeback	12.8 [423]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -6.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.00	0.02	19	67%	0.16	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Davion Mitchell	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	10	70%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.03	-0.03	8	52%	0.07	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Kel'el Ware	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Pelle Larsson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	12	42%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Haywood Highsmith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew Wiggins	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	12	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Tyler Herro	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	12	50%	0.06	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.13,0.18,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.16	0.16	-0.01	22	60%	0.35	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.01
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.04	0.03	10	81%	0.16	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.00	0.02	8	82%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	8	56%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	-0.03	15	51%	0.11	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dillon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	7	57%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	14	39%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.4	2.5	27.2	14.8	27.0	2.0	26.3	130.2
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +46.8%

MIA -2.1%

MIA -3.7%

OKC +9.6%

MIA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	OKC	NBA	MIA	OKC	NBA
this game	15.7	14.0	14.4	104.1	118.6	113.1
season	15.0	13.7		111.5	117.9
opponent	14.7	14.6		105.5	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.9	14.1	16.2	16.7	15.7
OKC	12.9	14.7	13.8	14.6	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jovic	58	58	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-17	20	15.9	15.5	0.40	14.0	14.0	-0.06
Andrew Wiggins	68	68	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.07	1	-15	16	16.0	15.1	0.85	14.2	13.6	0.58
Bam Adebayo	71	71	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-11	8	15.5	16.2	-0.62	14.2	13.3	0.88
Davion Mitchell	70	70	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-11	8	15.5	16.3	-0.82	14.3	13.2	1.06
Pelle Larsson	15	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-12	10	14.5	15.9	-1.38	15.9	13.7	2.27
Alec Burks	55	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	0	-14	16.6	14.5	2.16	13.8	14.3	-0.52
Haywood Highsmith	31	30	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.01	-16	2	-18	15.7	15.7	-0.03	13.5	14.2	-0.76
Kel'el Ware	50	51	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.20	-13	-1	-12	16.0	15.4	0.53	13.7	14.3	-0.52
Tyler Herro	67	69	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.02	-23	9	-32	15.0	17.2	-2.17	13.5	15.2	-1.72

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylin Williams	30	32	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.19	18	-4	22	11.6	15.1	-3.46	16.3	15.4	0.96
Kenrich Williams	41	39	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	0	14	14.8	13.4	1.41	16.7	15.1	1.61
Isaiah Joe	54	55	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.08	20	-6	26	13.2	14.9	-1.69	16.9	14.1	2.83
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	77	79	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.09	19	-5	24	13.5	16.0	-2.60	15.7	15.9	-0.23
Luguentz Dort	67	67	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.30	7	7	0	13.8	14.5	-0.69	15.2	16.8	-1.64
Alex Caruso	25	25	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.11	3	11	-8	13.5	14.2	-0.69	16.1	15.6	0.51
Dillon Jones	11	11	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.01	-2	16	-18	12.1	14.2	-2.14	19.4	15.2	4.13
Aaron Wiggins	58	58	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.15	0	14	-14	14.3	13.5	0.88	14.7	17.1	-2.39
Isaiah Hartenstein	60	58	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.11	-3	17	-20	15.3	11.9	3.35	15.2	16.5	-1.27
Jalen Williams	62	61	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.10	-6	20	-26	15.1	12.0	3.16	14.8	17.2	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.3,0.47,0.67,0.85,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 86, VAN 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.22,0.34,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.88,0.87,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	92.5%
MIL 92, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.32,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.46,0.43,0.63,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.93,1,0.99,1	91.7%
DET 87, BOS 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.53,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.96,0.96,0.94,1,1	91.3%