NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	104		Excitement	6.1 [621]		MVP	Zion Williamson (NOP): +18.4%
Toronto Raptors	113		Comeback	1.2 [721]		LVP	Jamal Shead (TOR): -12.0%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zion Williamson	0.18	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.16	0.05	0.02	18	70%	0.22	3	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Trey Murphy III	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.07	-0.01	14	50%	0.11	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Yves Missi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Javonte Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Jordan Hawkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	17	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	14	79%	-0.00
Jose Alvarado	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	21	48%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Daniel Theis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.06	0.03	14	70%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.07	0.02	8	60%	0.12	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.04	0.11	-0.00	21	41%	0.08	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.05
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	1	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.03	0.03	10	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gradey Dick	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	8	53%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	8	44%	0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
RJ Barrett	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	19	41%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.02
Ochai Agbaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Shead	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	9	28%	-0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.5	30.8	14.6	25.4	1.7	35.3	136.7
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +18.3%

TOR +16.7%

TOR +15.7%

NOP -2.8%

TOR +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	TOR	NBA	NOP	TOR	NBA
this game	13.3	14.0	14.4	100.0	105.6	113.0
season	14.4	13.9		109.3	109.0
opponent	14.6	14.3		113.0	118.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	12.8	13.2	13.8	13.7	13.3
TOR	12.9	14.0	15.0	14.0	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Javonte Green	55	59	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.17	12	-21	33	13.4	13.3	0.13	14.1	13.8	0.29
Dejounte Murray	79	81	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-12	15	13.2	13.7	-0.50	14.0	13.8	0.19
Jordan Hawkins	43	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-13	17	15.1	12.1	2.99	14.7	13.4	1.28
Daniel Theis	27	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.15	2	-11	13	15.3	12.6	2.65	16.0	13.2	2.76
Trey Murphy III	84	87	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.03	-6	-3	-3	13.1	14.4	-1.38	13.8	14.4	-0.61
Yves Missi	48	46	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.02	-13	4	-17	13.9	12.9	1.04	14.0	13.9	0.16
Zion Williamson	64	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	2	-13	11.9	15.7	-3.84	13.0	15.6	-2.58
Jose Alvarado	39	39	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.12	-20	11	-31	13.9	13.0	0.86	13.4	14.3	-0.89
CJ McCollum	81	83	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.28	-16	7	-23	12.7	15.7	-2.97	13.8	14.4	-0.60

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	71	70	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.19	20	-11	31	13.9	14.1	-0.20	13.6	12.8	0.81
Chris Boucher	37	37	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.17	18	-9	27	14.9	13.4	1.52	14.9	12.5	2.37
Davion Mitchell	57	55	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.08	18	-9	27	13.6	14.4	-0.80	13.1	13.6	-0.56
RJ Barrett	76	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-6	21	14.1	13.6	0.48	13.2	13.7	-0.49
Bruce Brown	63	60	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	5	-1	14.0	13.9	0.15	14.1	12.3	1.77
Gradey Dick	45	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.01	8	1	7	13.6	14.2	-0.57	12.3	14.2	-1.89
Scottie Barnes	85	82	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.27	-3	12	-15	13.5	15.5	-2.00	12.5	16.4	-3.90
Jamal Shead	50	49	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.15	-9	18	-27	14.4	13.6	0.80	13.6	13.1	0.56
Ochai Agbaji	26	24	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.04	-11	20	-31	14.0	13.9	0.11	14.0	13.1	0.92
Orlando Robinson	25	24	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.03	-15	24	-39	14.0	13.9	0.06	12.9	13.5	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.71,0.75,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.6,0.59,0.46,0.48,0.71,0.76,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, PHX 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.83,0.85,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%
GSW 95, MIL 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.7,0.54,0.56,0.45,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.55,0.66,0.77,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.87,0.84,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	93.2%
WAS 74, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.72,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.79,0.62,0.52,0.57,0.72,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.5%