NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	119		Excitement	11.6 [21]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +28.4%
Miami Heat	125		Comeback	29.9 [45]		LVP	Paolo Banchero (ORL): -59.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	7	82%	0.19	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Goga Bitadze	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	4	83%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Anthony Black	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.01	11	61%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Tristan da Silva	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.04	-0.00	13	65%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	9	55%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Franz Wagner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	25	48%	0.04	3	-0.06	10	70%	0.00
Cole Anthony	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	-0.59	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.19,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.21,-0.24,-0.44,-0.44,-0.44,-0.53,-0.59,-0.59	-0.14	-0.47	-0.01	21	38%	-0.12	5	-0.47	3	33%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.17	-0.00	15	68%	0.36	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.07
Kel'el Ware	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.28,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.05	-0.00	8	106%	0.36	3	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.01	0.16	0.00	12	58%	0.32	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	9	46%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-0.20	0.02	13	58%	-0.11	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.45,-0.45,-0.45,-0.45,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.02	-0.27	-0.01	28	51%	-0.10	5	-0.17	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	27.3	2.3	29.5	14.7	25.6	2.0	31.2	2.3	13.0	1.6	9.0	158.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	2.4	15.6	2.4	15.6	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +53.4%

ORL -4.1%

MIA +11.8%

ORL -13.6%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	15.4	14.4	105.3	112.6	113.1
season	15.4	14.9		108.6	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.4		111.2	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	14.7	13.4	18.0	15.7	16.2	15.4
MIA	13.5	14.8	15.6	16.3	15.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Anthony	34	35	0.56	-1.06	1.62	0.12	15	-21	36	13.9	16.4	-2.56	17.2	14.6	2.59
Goga Bitadze	41	42	0.42	-0.92	1.33	-0.20	21	-27	48	15.4	15.8	-0.44	16.1	15.0	1.08
Tristan da Silva	62	62	0.27	-0.77	1.05	-0.34	21	-27	48	15.6	15.7	-0.18	16.6	13.9	2.77
Jonathan Isaac	36	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.12	2	-8	10	14.8	16.0	-1.19	15.9	15.2	0.70
Franz Wagner	78	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.37	-8	2	-10	15.4	16.2	-0.76	15.2	15.8	-0.60
Anthony Black	83	80	-0.61	0.12	-0.73	-0.26	-12	6	-18	16.5	13.2	3.28	14.7	17.2	-2.46
Wendell Carter Jr.	71	69	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.00	-25	19	-44	16.0	15.1	0.84	15.0	16.1	-1.08
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	69	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.09	-23	17	-40	16.2	14.7	1.52	14.6	16.8	-2.15
Paolo Banchero	89	86	-0.96	0.46	-1.42	-0.35	-21	15	-36	15.5	16.0	-0.50	15.1	16.6	-1.52

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	87	90	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.36	19	-13	32	14.9	17.4	-2.49	15.4	16.5	-1.10
Duncan Robinson	85	86	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.39	14	-8	22	16.2	13.0	3.21	16.0	14.4	1.63
Kel'el Ware	78	80	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.23	15	-9	24	15.8	14.6	1.12	16.5	13.5	3.01
Tyler Herro	91	93	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.36	10	-4	14	14.9	17.9	-3.02	16.2	13.1	3.09
Nikola Jovic	88	89	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.46	-4	10	-14	16.0	13.3	2.73	15.4	16.5	-1.03
Haywood Highsmith	38	38	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	2	2	14.2	16.1	-1.88	16.6	15.2	1.41
Kevin Love	4	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	7	-8	15.7	15.4	0.34	12.7	15.7	-3.06
Terry Rozier	46	47	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.11	-12	18	-30	15.1	15.6	-0.54	13.9	16.9	-3.07
Pelle Larsson	38	39	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	-0.05	-15	21	-36	15.9	15.2	0.68	14.2	16.4	-2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.3,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.32,0.15,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.13,0.04,0.16,0.23,0.42,0.46,0.31,0.55,0.14,0.28,0.54,0.69,0.78,0.69,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 120, POR 128	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.25,0.45,0.33,0.15,0.54,0.31,0.23,0.02,0.16,0.46,0.61,0.79,0.98,1,1	86.3%
MIA 118, SAC 123	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.17,0.16,0.46,0.69,0.71,0.53,0.83,1	86.0%
CLE 123, CHI 132	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.26,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.17,0.39,0.45,0.24,0.26,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.16,0.54,0.81,0.85,0.97,0.98,1	85.6%