NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	113		Excitement	10.0 [75]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +29.6%
Denver Nuggets	110		Comeback	12.9 [84]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -20.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keldon Johnson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,0.17,0.17	0.05	0.12	-0.00	14	55%	0.22	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.03
Victor Wembanyama	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	22	73%	0.42	7	-0.25	4	75%	-0.00
Devin Vassell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.08	0.04	0.06	0.02	16	47%	0.08	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Chris Paul	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.06	-0.07	0.12	-0.01	11	32%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.01	0.08	-0.07	0.00	11	68%	0.17	1	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Tre Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Castle	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Harrison Barnes	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	10	40%	-0.01	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.16	0.14	0.00	14	79%	0.32	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.00	7	79%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.10	0.00	10	46%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	22%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	7	56%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	17	41%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,-0.21	-0.21	0.07	-0.27	0.01	36	51%	0.07	2	-0.28	9	89%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	27.4	14.7	24.2	2.4	27.5	121.4
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.8%

SAS +7.3%

SAS +15.5%

DEN -14.6%

SAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	13.6	14.4	113.0	108.9	113.1
season	14.2	14.2		113.0	117.1
opponent	14.5	14.5		114.6	115.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	14.9	14.1	16.3	15.1
DEN	13.1	13.9	13.6	13.7	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Wembanyama	72	72	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.36	17	-14	31	14.8	15.9	-1.14	13.3	14.2	-0.92
Keldon Johnson	54	53	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.64	5	-2	7	15.1	15.1	-0.04	14.1	12.9	1.22
Stephon Castle	53	54	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.06	18	-15	33	13.8	16.5	-2.68	14.0	13.0	0.96
Tre Jones	33	34	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.16	9	-6	15	13.8	15.8	-2.02	16.2	12.2	4.04
Julian Champagnie	50	51	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.39	-6	9	-15	15.9	14.3	1.66	12.9	14.2	-1.36
Harrison Barnes	67	69	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.13	10	-7	17	14.7	16.0	-1.37	14.1	12.5	1.59
Chris Paul	67	67	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.25	-6	9	-15	15.8	13.8	2.02	12.2	16.2	-4.04
Devin Vassell	76	76	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.40	-18	21	-39	15.9	12.7	3.11	12.8	15.8	-2.93
Zach Collins	28	29	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.05	-14	17	-31	15.9	14.8	1.14	14.2	13.3	0.92

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Strawther	47	46	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.17	1	-4	5	14.7	12.6	2.11	14.4	15.7	-1.25
Russell Westbrook	67	67	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.25	6	-9	15	12.2	16.2	-4.04	15.8	13.8	2.02
Nikola Jokic	77	77	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.31	7	-10	17	12.9	15.6	-2.66	15.5	13.7	1.89
Hunter Tyson	12	10	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.11	-11	8	-19	17.4	13.0	4.38	11.2	15.5	-4.34
Michael Porter Jr.	88	87	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.45	7	-10	17	12.5	20.7	-8.19	15.8	10.5	5.34
DeAndre Jordan	9	9	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	5	-13	15.0	13.4	1.59	13.6	15.3	-1.71
Peyton Watson	37	39	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.12	-10	7	-17	15.8	12.3	3.48	14.3	15.6	-1.36
Christian Braun	91	89	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.50	0	-3	3	13.7	12.2	1.50	15.1	14.9	0.23
Jamal Murray	77	76	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.58	-7	4	-11	13.9	12.5	1.38	14.8	16.1	-1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.9,0.57,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 98, MIN 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.76,0.63,0.78,0.59,0	90.0%
CHI 98, IND 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.72,0.57,0.59,0	88.8%
CHH 107, WAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.69,0.6,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.58,0	88.5%