NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	108		Excitement	5.0 [322]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +25.0%
Miami Heat	119		Comeback	1.0 [460]		LVP	Haywood Highsmith (MIA): -8.8%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Murphy III	0.16	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.00	0.00	24	62%	0.17	1	-0.01	7	100%	0.04
CJ McCollum	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	16	59%	0.08	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Brandon Boston	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.01	0.04	7	78%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Yves Missi	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	3	87%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Herbert Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Daniel Theis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Javonte Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hawkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	13	43%	-0.03	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.20	0.06	0.00	22	65%	0.25	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	4	100%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.02	0.02	13	65%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	5	75%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	4	55%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	9	55%	0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	14	70%	0.11	4	-0.10	5	100%	0.01
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.5	24.6	14.7	26.1	1.8	32.2	130.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.3	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.2%

NOP -2.8%

MIA +14.2%

NOP -8.0%

MIA +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	MIA	NBA	NOP	MIA	NBA
this game	13.6	16.4	14.3	111.3	125.3	112.0
season	14.7	14.8		107.0	112.5
opponent	14.6	14.1		110.7	117.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	14.7	16.4	12.5	11.5	13.6
MIA	15.3	17.9	15.3	17.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Boston	38	39	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.25	11	-22	33	14.5	13.1	1.37	17.4	15.7	1.64
Daniel Theis	38	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-15	19	13.2	13.9	-0.79	15.4	17.0	-1.66
Herbert Jones	79	77	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-11	11	13.5	14.3	-0.78	16.7	15.2	1.44
Javonte Green	18	18	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	0	-11	14.3	13.5	0.78	15.2	16.7	-1.44
Jordan Hawkins	41	39	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	-4	-3	14.2	13.2	0.92	16.3	16.5	-0.23
Yves Missi	58	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	1	-13	13.9	13.3	0.60	17.1	15.3	1.75
Dejounte Murray	63	62	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.03	-11	0	-11	13.7	13.5	0.26	16.6	16.1	0.50
CJ McCollum	71	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.06	-12	1	-13	13.2	14.9	-1.75	16.1	17.1	-1.00
Trey Murphy III	79	78	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.07	-17	6	-23	13.4	14.8	-1.47	16.0	18.0	-1.96

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	81	82	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.05	13	-2	15	16.1	17.9	-1.81	13.3	15.7	-2.48
Haywood Highsmith	53	54	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.00	11	0	11	16.2	16.6	-0.41	13.3	14.1	-0.82
Bam Adebayo	63	64	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.12	6	5	1	16.7	15.8	0.82	13.5	13.9	-0.36
Jimmy Butler	48	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	2	7	16.3	16.4	-0.11	14.7	12.5	2.21
Nikola Jovic	64	66	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.27	0	11	-11	16.8	15.5	1.30	13.6	13.8	-0.25
Duncan Robinson	50	50	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.06	7	4	3	16.4	16.4	-0.02	14.5	12.7	1.86
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	47	48	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	9	-7	16.4	16.3	0.11	12.5	14.7	-2.21
Alec Burks	37	39	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.16	2	9	-7	16.5	16.3	0.20	13.9	13.4	0.47
Kel'el Ware	32	33	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	6	-1	15.8	16.7	-0.82	13.9	13.5	0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.72,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.68,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 84, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%
PHX 115, MIA 125	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.78,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.68,0.69,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.3%
SAS 96, PHX 116	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.68,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.89,0.98,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%