NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	115		Excitement	5.2 [812]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +19.4%
Miami Heat	125		Comeback	1.0 [1158]		LVP	Joe Johnson (PHX): -11.3%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Leandro Barbosa	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	10	78%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.01	0.05	18	63%	0.08	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.02	0.02	8	79%	0.09	3	-0.05	8	100%	0.04
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.02	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	15	68%	0.15	6	-0.14	7	100%	0.03
Steven Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Walter McCarty	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	14	45%	0.05	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Jim Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	8	31%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.03	-0.01	13	79%	0.23	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.05	0.05	-0.11	25	56%	0.17	6	-0.06	12	83%	0.02
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.04	7	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	0.00	0.07	16	74%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	8	33%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	2.8	30.3	18.5	29.9	0.3	29.6	139.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.8%

MIA +1.3%

MIA +4.5%

MIA +14.1%

MIA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	12.3	16.8	15.5	116.2	126.3	104.0
season	13.5	15.7		112.9	107.9
opponent	15.5	16.0		101.1	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.1	12.8	11.0	11.4	12.3
MIA	14.2	16.0	17.4	19.9	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	14	14	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-9	8	14.7	11.9	2.77	20.1	16.2	3.86
Steven Hunter	14	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-6	2	14.1	12.0	2.11	17.3	16.7	0.62
Steve Nash	73	74	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-10	10	12.5	11.8	0.66	17.6	14.2	3.42
Quentin Richardson	75	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-9	8	12.1	13.0	-0.88	17.5	14.6	2.87
Leandro Barbosa	41	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	0	-10	12.8	12.0	0.76	16.6	16.8	-0.21
Joe Johnson	67	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.18	-6	-4	-2	12.1	12.9	-0.85	16.3	17.8	-1.57
Amar'e Stoudemire	85	85	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	12.0	14.1	-2.11	16.7	17.3	-0.62
Jim Jackson	41	39	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.03	-13	3	-16	12.4	12.3	0.14	14.8	18.0	-3.28
Shawn Marion	85	85	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.24	-9	-1	-8	11.9	14.7	-2.77	16.2	20.1	-3.86

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	85	86	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.11	14	-4	18	16.4	19.0	-2.61	12.2	13.2	-1.03
Dwyane Wade	83	82	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.19	8	2	6	16.7	17.2	-0.59	11.9	14.3	-2.37
Michael Doleac	49	46	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	0	10	15.4	18.0	-2.59	11.8	12.8	-0.95
Shandon Anderson	52	50	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-1	12	16.1	17.5	-1.43	11.9	12.8	-0.96
Damon Jones	49	49	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.05	10	0	10	16.7	16.8	-0.17	13.0	11.7	1.28
Keyon Dooling	52	52	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	10	-10	16.6	16.9	-0.30	11.6	13.1	-1.55
Udonis Haslem	48	50	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	11	-12	17.2	16.3	0.96	12.8	11.8	0.98
Shaquille O'Neal	49	52	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	10	-10	18.3	15.2	3.07	12.8	11.9	0.92
Steven Smith	28	28	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.09	-2	12	-14	18.6	16.0	2.53	14.2	11.6	2.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.78,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.68,0.69,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 96, PHX 116	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.68,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.89,0.98,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
DEN 89, BOS 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
SAC 97, PHX 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.78,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%